My speculation targets for PTOrigins

The top 8 decks for PTOrigins has been revealed and this has really made cards like Demonic Pact spike hard. Open confession; I did not buy any pieces despite sending a text to my friends what to look out for this weekend.

My speculation list was quite different from the above. In terms of what I actually bought, I went for the cheaper, but higher risk specs and this is my list as a result: 

Card Bought	Number of copies	price per piece
Grim Haruspex	28 eng, 1 jap	SGD $0.60 ea
See the Unwritten	6 eng, 1 jap	SGD $4.00 / $5.00 ea
Ghostfire Blade	27 eng, 1 jap	SGD $0.60 ea
Silumgar's Command	12 eng	SGD $1.00 ea

Bummer... I could have dumped a few dollars into demonic pact for the easy money, but the copies here were going for $7.50 last checked. I was only willing to buy them in at $5 a piece and the places selling at that price were out of stock. Nevertheless, let's make lemonade out of lemons.

Prices captured on 2nd August 2015, after the announcement of PTOrigins top 8.
Source: www.mtggoldfish.com

I mean that jump from $7.50 to $13 is still money that could be made. But, nevertheless, it's still good to see 2 out of the 4 specs that I bought made it to the top winners immediately after the ProTour. I'll see how much can they rise before determining the profit margin. 

I don't expect Ghostfire Blade to stay in the increment trend for too long as it may or may not be relevant once rotation. I believe it would still be a relevant but can the deck last through two rotations? It's quite hard to tell now, so that is likely an early out if it hits $2.00 - $3.00 a piece. 

See the Unwritten potentially may see play in the post-Theros rotation period, so I'm not too bearish with the prices. It has a good potential to double from here on, so I'll take my chances. I may get a few more copies if I can get them under $4.00.

Grim Haruspex is a tough one. Abzan Rally seemed to dominate the meta until this recent ProTour, falling out from the Top 8. I'm not exactly confident in it going any higher than $3.00 if the meta shift caused the Rally deck to become obsolete. But, it is already cheap enough to jump in as bulk rare spec, and no matter what, it is still a card draw engine. If nothing else, just look at the casual appeal for this card.

I'm quite bullish about this one. It's still a Command with 4 utility regardless. The utility modes are actually very relevant in constructed format and it's cheap to buy in at the moment! Except that I foolishly clicked "buy" at $1.00. This can be a spec that I'm looking to keep a slightly longer term if it doesn't see play or price spike in the next. It eventually will find its home, but it will take awhile.

What I've targeted in GP Singapore and why

GP Singapore has just passed and I was not exactly that prepared for it. Sadly I don't have $1000 in my bank ready to use, nor do I have a huge binder full of good stuffs to trade off for even cooler stuffs. However, I did managed to trade in for a lot of cool stuff and what I think are potential long-term holds.

I haven't really blogged about myself as a trader and my actions in awhile now. I started blogging for about a year as a reflective form, which documented my trades and how I think I should improve. Well, that post is back for this one and I really think I should reflect and think what I really should/want to do with my limited budget. Also, it serves the reflection portion of my trades in GP.

While I cannot remember the exact trades and what I have sold, (I didn't record them down. Too much of a hassle..) I can state here roughly what I was targeting for and why.

• God cards from Theros Expansion (THS / BOG / JOU)
  
  This was my prime target for GP. I could only afford the non-foil ones and this was my prime target. I firmly believe that some of the God cards will see play in Modern. If not at worst, fueled by EDH or casual demands. Yes, the foil ones will definitely be a better pick, but the growth trajectory will more or less be the same, differing only in the scale of multipliers. 
  My argument is this, not everyone is into foils and even more in the EDH/Casual market crowd loves to innovate and home-brew. So having acquiring the non-foils would mean easier liquidity in future. That being said, I do have my eyes on Foil Thassa and Keranos as my main targets.
• Jace, Architect of Thought
  
  I did mention once that I decided to stop buying foil Planeswalkers. The buy-in price for some of them are insanely expensive, and also, because I see no value in collecting just one of each when I could better put the money into trading and investment. When the news and talk about Jace, AOT was fringe playable back then earlier in the year, I kept my eye on the social media sites and when there are more talks about it being a contender in certain control decks and Sideboard plan, I immediately bought out from the shops I frequent to. Also, during the GP event, I managed to snipe and buy them out in the $3 - $4 range.
• Shocklands / Fetchlands
  
  I regreted one thing in the GP. Using fetches and shocks as leverage for trades. I let go a few shocks for the trades and sale to buy in some of the God cards and as well as several other pieces for my 2nd Modern deck, which I now regret making it. (More to that in a later post)
  However, I managed to acquire 2 foil shocks and a few more Bloodstained Mires in the process, so I'm cool with it. I will still be actively looking for them as a higher priority than Jace AOT from now onwards. Well, maybe when Khans expansion reaches near post-rotation, when the prices dip first.
• Foiled EDH deck pieces
  My lowest priority in the trading list, but I managed to acquire some pieces for my EDH deck. The foiling process is surely, but slowly. I love EDH, but I only could afford to have 1 deck at a time because I don't play it often. 

Other Cards that I have sniped during the GP event:

• Rattleclaw Mystic ($0.50 - $1.00)
  With no good mana dorks coming up in MTGO, I would expect Rattleclaw to bounce back to its former price tag of ~$4
• Dictate of Erebos ($0.50 - $1.00)
  Have you seen Grave Pact? How is this different from it?!
• Breaking // Entering ($1.00)
• Mind Grind ($0.50) 
• Consuming Aberration ($0.50) 
  Casual Cards that see some play in EDH and kitchen table. Word going around with my own group of friends and speculators is that they are viable long-term holds. Great! right up in my alley.
• Haven of the Spirit Dragon ($3.00 - $3.50)
  Cavern of Souls' price trajectory really taught me something; if it's a land that can give a popular tribal multi-colour/colour fixing, there is potential. If that land has an additional ability in it, it's golden!
• Savannah (SP) (~$80)
  It's a 1-off thing... I traded 1-for-1 using a Snapcaster Mage

So where does this go for me now? Personally, I'm going back to do bulk rare trading and occasionally do some trades online. With my Modern decks near completion, I don't foresee myself doing huge buys after completing my second Modern deck. In an earlier article, I mentioned the need of sustaining a higher percentage of "liquid" asset over "solid". I'll put this as my goal for this year. At least this gives me another reason to save up other than the anticipated Overseas Immersion Programme later this year. 

What I bought and why? [May 2015 - 22 June 2015]

A rather active period for me, as I decided to hit hard in some of the specs. The main target as you can see are the God cards from Theros expansion. I'm looking to trade heavily into them. Both foils and Non-Foils due to the casual appeal.

In the same time, I have moved out a lot of unused modern staples like Snapcasters, Leyline of Sanctity, etc. to acquire these cards and as well as to build up my liquid asset. As I did bring up a couple of times when I first started the blog, the biggest issue for me is to balance out liquid and solid assets. Hence, I'm moving towards that as the goal for the year.

As I am still studying, my finance flexibility isn't rather rigid and I can only spend that much on cards. Sure, I can don't spend any of it on cards; that's one way. But, I have to remember that I have a lot of cards that may worth value that are still sitting in my binder. I have to move them asap in order to clear out and restart the collection. I'll talk about this in a later post after GPSingapore.

Meantime, this is what I have been trading:

Cards purchased / Traded	Prices per piece
1x Heliod, God of the Sun 1x Karametra, God of Harvests 1x Keranos, God of Storms 1x Xenagos, God of Revels	Trade With: 1x Scute Mob  1x Vedalken Shackles (MMA)
2x Kruphix, God of Horizons 1x Karametra, God of Harvests 1x Ephara, God of Polis	333  Points (PucaTrade) 195  Points (PucaTrade) 143 Points (PucaTrade)
1x Abrupt Decay 1x Ashen Rider 1x Krosan Grip 1x Rakshasa Deathdealer 1x Silumgar, Drifting Death 1x Terastodon 1x Utter End	Trade With: 1x Bloodstained Mire 1x Fracturing Gust 1x Tyrant's Choice (Foil)
2x Breaking // Entering 1x Conjurer's Closet 2x Dictate of Kruphix 1x Medomai the Ageless 1x Pithing Needle 2x Rakshasa Deathdealer 1x Rattleclaw Mystic 2x Strionic Resonator	Trade With:  1x Bloodthrone Vampire (Foil) 1x Cavern Lampad (Foil) 1x Congregate (Foil) 1x Dazzling Ramparts (Foil) 1x Dragon-Style Twins (Foil) 1x Erase (Foil) 1x Fortify (Foil) 1x Fossil Find (Foil) 1x Highspire Mantis (Foil) 1x Meandering Towershell (Foil) 1x Mind Sculpt (Foil) 1x Monastery Flock (Foil) 1x Nature's Panoply (Foil) 1x Poison the Well (Foil) 1x Scion of Vitu-Ghazi (Foil) 1x Sidisi's Pet (Foil) 1x Sigiled Skink (Foil) 1x Smite (Foil) 1x Tormenting Voice (Foil) 1x War-Name Aspirant (Foil) 1x War-Wing Siren (Foil) 1x Whirlwind Adept (Foil) 1x Windstorm (Foil)
3x Jace, Architect of Thought (Duel Deck)	$4.13 each ($12.39)
1x Chromatic Lantern 3x Erebos, God of the Dead 1x Purphoros, God of the Forge	1x Leyline of Sanctity (M11)
2x Chord of Calling 1x Ephara, God of the Polis 1x Erebos, God of the Dead 1x Heliod, God of the Sun 1x Karametra, God of the Harvests 1x Pharika, God of Affliction 1x Tasigur, the Golden Fang 1x Thassa, God of the Sea	1x Boseiju, Who Shelters All 1x Leyline of Sanctity 1x Persecute Artist (Unhinged) 1x Spell Pierce
7x Kruphix. God of Horizons	$4.00 each ($28.00)
1x Prophet of Kruphix (Foil)	$5.00
8x Karametra, God of the Harvests	$2.50 each ($20.00)
1x Feed the Clan (Foil)	$1.00
1x Become Immense (Foil)	$6.00
3x Nettle Sentinel (2 NM, 1Ex)	NM: $1.50 each Ex: $1.27 ($4.24 after disc)
1x Ephara, God of the Polis 1x Karametra, God of the Harvests	$1.98 $2.50
Small Collection from a friend quitting MTG	$75.00

Yes, as I said, it's quite an extensive list. I won't be posting my sell-list however. If not there will be no end to this post!

In a quick summary of my trades:

• Gods acquired are for extremely long-term investments. I'm talking about holding them for 3-5 years at least. I have calculated the ROIs and stuff and I'm expecting them to hit at least $8 at that point of time.
• Feed the Clan, Jace, AOT and Become Immense Foils are extremely situational. I will want to keep them, but am willing to trade them if the trade value is good. This includes any other unmentioned Modern-usable cards.
• Nettle Sentinel and the other rares are strictly for trades and resale. 
• EDH staples like Prophet of Kruphix Foil, Chromatic lantern is meant to be kept for future EDH decks.

So, what do you think? Did I make good trades or I made a bad move moving out the cards like Leyline? What have you traded/bought in the past month or so? Comments and share! I love to hear your discussions and thoughts!

Keep a lookout for this binder during GPSingapore! I'll be using this as my main trade binder! Just... dont' expect any high end cards from me alright? I'm still doing mainly bulk rares and cheaper cards :)

What I bought and why? [13 April 2015 - 15th April 2015]

A pretty short update for this. I just think I want to log down what I have bought and the reason for buying it.

Cards purchased	Prices per piece
4x Stony silence (French) 1x Polluted Delta	Trade with Marsh Flats
2x Windswept Heath (Jap)	$18.00
1x Dromoka's Command	923 Points (PucaTrade)
1x Lightning Helix 1x Tasigur, Golden Fang 1x Stony Silence 1x Hada Freeblade (Promo)	1x Wooded Foothill 1x Tibalt, the Fiend Blooded (Duel Deck foil) 1x Unburial Rites 3x Pack Rat

Dromoka's Command is a bomb in 2 formats; Standard and Modern Constructed. It has been picking up traction over the past few days and it has reached the $9, nearing the $10 mark soon. It would break the $10 mark eventually, and I would expect it to reach $15 this year.

Windswept Heath / Polluted Delta is pretty self-explanatory. Fetchlands are the best bet to buy in for any eternal formats. I'll expect it to stay at around the $30-$40 range in future since its a reprint.

Stony Silence hoses Affinity and  has spiked to $4-$5 recently.  I'm not surprise to see them creep up to $6 - $8 eventually. Even if the price does not increase, it would maintain a value in that range, so it's still a relatively safe buy-in or trade pick ups if I can get them under $4.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang is essentially Goyf 5 and 6 in modern. He has seen play around in a few rouge decks and as well as in Abzan decks. This is a significant proof that he is here to stay. Still, I'm not really convinced that he will rise to anything like Goyfs any time soon. Still, he is a good trade target for other things

Hada Freeblade Promo and Lightning Helix is more for my decks and inventory usage. No other comments in finance side of the 2 cards.

What I bought and why? [23 march 2015 - 7th April 2015]

A pretty short update for this. I just think I want to log down what I have bought and the reason for buying it.

Cards purchased	Prices per piece
4x Anafenza, the Foremost (Foil)	$18.00
1x Wooded Foothills	$12.00
11x Rest in Peace	$2.00
1x Anger of the Gods	Trade with Gaea's Revenge

Anafenza, the Foremost is a bomb in 2 formats; Tiny Leaders and EDH. She is also seeing some play in certain variants of Abzan decks. This is more for a long-term holding rather than a quick buy/sell. I would think that getting it to  be around $30 due to casual and Tiny Leaders demand would not be far-fetched by next year.

Wooded Foothills is pretty self-explanatory. Fetchlands are the best bet to buy in for any eternal formats. I'll expect it to stay at around the $30-$40 range since its a reprint.

Rest in Peace is meant to be a long-term holding card. It's like Stony Silence, which has spiked to $4-$5 recently and it's all due to Affinty and Tron decks in the Modern meta. Similarly, we can expect Rest in Peace to slowly and eventually, rise up to that price when the meta calls and when the time is right. 

Anger of the Gods is a much better card to hold as compared to Gaea's Revenge.

What I bought and why? [9-13 march 2015]

So I've seen trends going around that many big-time speculators are disclosing what they have bought over the weeks etc, and their justifications. Well, I think I want to join in the fun! I've done a spreadsheet on what I have bought and sold, along with the prices.

What I have bought so far and the reasons for buying.

Most of them are for investment and safe to say, most are safe bets to go buy into. I have some high risk speculation cards which I will go into later for my reasoning.

Foil Thought Scour is a step too late. I had the opportunity to ship them out at 1200 points each on PucaTrade, but I hesitated. In the end I lost that window to trade it out and eventually, had to settle it for selling them at $8 each.  The profit margin was still okay though, but it would have been better even if it is out via points. The considerable amount of difference in the profit still does matter in the end when I think about the possible trade routes. Even then, it's still good to see profit.

Smother was a simple plan; pick it up at $1.50 when the prices reflected are $6 and just sell it at that price. No questions asked.

Abrupt Decays are safe spec pieces that I have been trading them for awhile since last year. The profit margin is quite reasonable and on my side, I still have 11 more pieces. Those will be waiting for the prices to hit $18 - $20 before letting go of them.

I'm not willing to let go of Snapcaster Mage despite the obvious increment in prices. I firmly believe in my words that Snapcaster Mage will hit $50 this year. Heck, I'm willing to do a bet that it will hit $55 by the end of the year! I'll be looking to sell them at that price range by then. I don't foresee myself using them anytime soon. Even then, a reprint for Snapcaster Mage is an easy priority target in future Modern Masters reprints.

Okay, let's move on to the Higher risk speculation pieces

Rakshasa Deathdealer

• 4-off in almost all Standard Abzan deck? a 2/2 for 2 mana which is a relevant draw in early and late game. It's $1 now but I expect to see it reaching $3 - $4 tops when Theros rotates out. Even if it isn't in Abzan decks, G/B/x variants can run this still. 

Trail of Mystery (High Risk)

• I don't know... I thought manifest and morph would be a thing with this...

Ghostfire Blade (High Risk)

• A strong card if there some works of colourless or morph creatures... Affinity may not want to play it over cranial plating, but there is still hope in seeing it in some decks post- KTK... 

Spirit of the Labyrinth

• Modern and Legacy playable. I know the foil is insane now, so the non-foil would pick up the trend.. Plus, this card is in Born of the Gods... it's a small set and also, it's barely opened as compared to the other expansions of that block... so it would probably be a long-term keep. 

See the Unwritten

• Firstly, it's a mythic that will be seen in EDH play. It screams for decks with unique synergy with this card and by itself, it's a game winner if done right. Second, it is very possible to see it in play in Standard constructed formats due to its power level. It may not be seen now, but I'm very sure that this will be a strong pick-up now. Too bad I only have 6 pieces... Should have bought more of them...

Anax and Cymede (Foil)

• Tiny Leaders is really in the rage right now and this is is a very strong choice as a tier 1 commander. Wait for it... if it really takes off, this would go up accordingly to demand and play.

Remember I had written an article regarding a project in which I'm making another modern deck?? You can read all about it in the link below:

http://project-zer0.blogspot.sg/2015/01/brewing-project-zer0-style.html

I have more or less completed the deck, but after a few games with it, I realized it's not my play-style. I sold the deck to a friend, while keeping the staples for my other decks. But, the underlying motive of the deck was still about brewing a deck for cheap using trade platforms. So here is the final spending:

Cards purchased	Prices per piece
2x Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx	$6.65
1x Baneslayer Angel	$12.35
4x Nevermore	$1.00
1x White Sun's Zenith	$0.50
1x Leyline of Sanctity	$25.00
3x Wrath of God	$11.00

Combined PucaTrade / Deckbox Mailing cost:

~$50.00

Total:

$109.50

As I did mention, the total cost for the deck would hit around USD$350 if I were to buy from the shops (cos shops here mainly does a price guide from starcitygames with USD/SGD conversion factor.) I managed to reduce the price to $109.50 spent. I think it's a good amount of savings and considering that the cards that I kept were like 4x Leylines, Baneslayer Angel and the Wrath of Gods, I think its worth the money spent in the end. 

It was a small project I wanted to run for awhile and now that I have accomplished that goal, it's time to move on to other things.