Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Prep for Modern Madness (5)

Before I begin this installment to the series, I'd like to review what I have discussed or rant about in the previous four. My point of discussion may not be clear, so let's clarify in this short review for the last four installments;

The most important point in my first post is what kind of cards I would like to target with such limited budget. The rest of the post is about knowing my inventory and when is the best timing to sell. The point here is that knowing some cards spiked due to hype and some is because of play potential, the real challenge here is knowing which. I'm no expert here but I do have my own opinions whether to follow certain hype or not. As far as I'm concerned. A good research is the most important factor to determine the flow of the hype and know what is coming up for the season.
It is also worth noting that when the factor of profit is taken into account, it's not just as simple that taking the difference of what I sold deduct away how much I bought. The time value makes a difference in whether the profit is worth the time sitting on the cards of whether should I sell them ASAP.

The second post see myself warning myself (weird...) about how this Modern season is going to be different. In summary, this season will see players getting ready and selling off your cards at a higher than market price would not be easy. The prices will spike definitely, but watch out in getting too involved and unable to sell it out. Heck, the plus side is that this is a non-rotating format and the staples will be staples for a long time. I also mentioned the value of Shocklands going up in price during modern season and how I will want to snatch them at a good price especially the foils; they have a huge appeal in various casual and constructed formats. (Shocklands are basically the duals of modern like how the revised lands are for legacy.)

Third post reviews the common decks in the Modern format, and 3 factors; Time, Budget, and Competitive spirit, were discussed when considering whether should one jump into the modern if they haven't made the switch while the Fourth post is a short post noting what I wish to pick up during this modern season, with a reference back to the first post on why I would avoid getting expensive staples like Tarmagoyf or Fetchlands unless necessary.

Now, for this installment to the series I'd focus on the direction I'm taking for the second half of the year in my trades. This post would be more of a personal evaluation to where I am and what will I be doing. First and foremost, I would want to review myself as in general. I mean, who am I as a trader? What do I want to accomplish? How do I want to get there? The lack of update in the last week is because I was taking time away to finish my exams, but still have yet to clear the last stretch. But, as time is a little more relaxed for me so here's back to the update.

Back to the point, I personally define myself as a bulk rare trader. I would want to trade with bulk rares to build up my inventory. In priority, I would trade bulk rare for more which then I will then bulk out the "excess" or "true bulks" to other avenues in return for my required investments. While many people spend money direct to acquire the cards, I find that trading in that manner would feel more meaningful, upon acquiring the card, the value would be better cherished. Through this project and scheme, I wish to accomplish the task in reducing my card-related expenditures via trading. Yes, though trading equal-value rares will be easier to accomplish the trade, but the step to reach there has to be from somewhere. I already mentioned I wish to reduce my card-related so expenditure so hence, as much as possible, I'll trade bulk rares to work my way up. It is also because new decks are emerging constantly, there will definitely be prices that spike due to a sudden emerging deck taking down the meta. Sitting on the bulk rare ensures that small possibility of striking that gold mine, reaping the best profit margin with regard to the increase. To me, bulk rare is extremely versatile in its use in both trading and deck construction. Because it is cheap to acquire, I can easily get playsets of them for casual deck brewing and/or brainstorming for ideas.

How the idea works has been explained before; simply get bulk rares and start trading! There is a fixed formula in about getting more cards and there are articles that have been talking around on the same idea. What makes this different is that I have included different sources of trades available; I accept bulk mythic and bulk rares and what I offer is not just additional bulk rares, but also other rarities like uncommons and mythic. (Rarity grade have different exchange rates of course!) I have yet to find a fixed source of supply for bulk rares to acquire and honestly after the spiking of Desecration Demon and Pack Rat this year, the acquisition of bulk rare is more difficult to get. Shopping for bulk online is an option, but due to the exchange rate, it is calculated that a single bulk rare would hit at about $0.50 each after conversion and shipping, effectively negating any profit margin from the start if I were to do direct sales. It can be an option to start off but I'm not looking as a start off option, but more of sustainability as requirement.

Admittedly I won't solely work on trading bulk rares. Financially it is a sound plan, but in respect to time-profit curve, it is extremely low viability. I have to calculate how much actual profit I will make for the bulk trades, but a rough guide is that I won't make much profit or near to none until I bulk trade them for the better rares. It's from there then I'll see the profit margins come in. Slowly, but surely. I'll eventually work my way in to build my collection.

Now the question you'll be asking is, "how is this relevant to preparing for Modern?" Remember when I did mention that prices will spike up during modern season? If you either have the finances to fund your deck and/or you have been sitting on the staple pile, good for you! But, if you are like me who has low budget income and have to find ways to either to work within your budget or get more bang for your buck, knowing what you want to do with your inventory and how you will be trading is beneficial. Many times through personal experience and through discussions with friends, I realise at times we can get very lost in how we want to trade. It's like a mood swing in simple analogy; at one point we may be very into a particular constructed format, while when suddenly we may get into EDH or another format, ended up changing your buylist and trade list frequently to the point we can get lost in what we really want. I did discuss this shortly in another post regarding Inventory sorting and organisations and I also did briefly discuss earlier in deciding which format to jump into. (Although I'm using Modern Constructed as an example, the idea is transferable to other formats as well.)

I know I'll follow the modern format more than any other format, plus I love EDH format for the crazy deck combos and synergies that I can pull off so I'd settle that as a secondary lookout for cheap staples. It's actually a good idea to look out for cheap staples used in multiple format, but problem is that since it's for multiple formats, the window to get them fairly cheaply is very small and chances are they will spike almost immediately upon seeing tournament play. We know that the value of a card is mainly based on hype and tournament results; (Alternatively, value can be seen as a prized possession with sentimental value. But, for this case, I'm sticking to financial value.) So because of the multiple formats, the more it sees play, the more expensive it becomes overtime. This is especially true if the format(s) are eternal or non-rotating formats like Modern/Legacy; their price will only appreciate from there. If missing the window to get them cheap, waiting for post-rotation may see the price dropping a slight margin but that's another short window frame before the prices rise again.

Knowing who I am as a trader, what I want to do, and how I want to go about accomplishing gives me a clear direction in my target for the next half of the year and what are the steps I have to take to improve the profit margin in trading, or not, rather, increase the value worth of the money I spend. I can write more, but I'll digress; I want to keep this article about preparing myself ready for this Modern Season and review more about myself as a trader. I would like to see myself as a trader with some dealing experience, but there is definitely more to learn. The main learning point about trading is communication, networking and marketing. Logistics management is also important which to me, are all key lessons in life that I cannot learn just by attending classes. I'm not sure if the article will relate to anyone else as this is mainly my personal reflection in the things I encounter and what I have learnt. If it's relatable, that's great! If it isn't I hope it's still an interesting story in life from another person's perspective.








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