Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Gold in Black and Silver?

Now I have been talking quite a bit in gold symbol rares and sometimes the topic of Mythic symbol rares came up. I haven't really had the time to talk about the finance part on the Common and Uncommons in MTG. Namely the "C" and the "U" in my terms and pretty much many people whom I have encountered will refer these cards as that when posting their buy/sell list. If you take a look around eBay and online stores, you'll see lots and I mean lots in the sense of bulk of cards packed into large boxes and posted as the following; "Selling X amount of C&U @ $Y" or "Large bulk lot of assorted C and UC going at $Z!" I mean look! Even StarCityGames sells C/U, be it in singles or in complete sets! So there must be something up in these pile of black and silver cards right? Is there money in them? Why are there so many people selling them?

Bulk deals like these are typical in online stores.
Source: trollandtoad.com
If you think about it, these lots as I mentioned earlier or as shown in the picture just above this sentence amount to hundreds or thousands of cards being packed into lots and selling for say, a couple of tens or hundreds of dollars, depending on the price decided. The actual price of a single common or uncommon is actually.... Nothing! Really, if I actually really do the maths out, each piece may range between $0.01 (lowest I have seen so far) to probably the more familiar $0.25 or $0.50 per piece with the latter more commonly seen as the retail price in online stores.

So to the big question on hand, is there really money from commons and uncommon cards? In my foremost opinion, there is! Look, I'm with you that rare and mythic rare singles are probably the best money generators in the secondary market. (Project-Zero is revolving around bulk rare trade... so point supported with evidence!) Many people, when speculating cards or when buying off cards will usually target the gold or orange symbol cards. Why? They are rare for a reason, with only 1 piece of them per booster pack; especially the mythics are going at 1/8th the probability of a gold rare card to be pulled out. Of course, the respective scarcity of the card is already a point that the rare is more valued than the commons and uncommons. But, look at this in another way, common and uncommon cards are kind of like the backbone for any decks. Yes the rares and mythics may take a bulk in top decks, but note that these decks likely won't function as they would if they have just the rare cards alone; you need the other cards! Not convinced? Does Brainstorm ring a bell? What about Path to Exile? Mother of Runes? Remand? Qasali Pridemage? The more exhorbitant ones like Sensei's Divining TopForce of Will and Aven Mindcensor are examples I can immediately think of.

Examples of Commons and Uncommons that have soared beyond the normal prices: (from Top-left, clockwise) Wasteland, Swords to Plowshare, Force of Will, Counterspell, Brainstorm, Library of Alexendra, Lightning Bolt. Source: gatherer.wizards.com

Coming up with the algorithm determining which common/uncommon have potential investment value is similar to how a rare is valued at whether it is junk or (non)literally gold. The research is similar but it takes a longer time as though as I mentioned that the cards may form the backbone of several decks, they are usually overlooked or overshadowed by the rares which will be chased down by traders and players alike. It takes a while longer to see them slowly appreciate with demand. As discussed in earlier posts, cards that are defined in multi-format, multi-decks will tend to rise faster, especially higher if they don't see reprints that easily. I think many will agree that Uncommons yield a better chance of going up in price in regards to the same theory of the relative scarcity of rares to Commons and Uncommons. Also, the relative power level of Uncommons in utility or function would be more useful as compared to a common. Therefore, yields a higher chance of play = may see more demand = price go up(?).

On the contrary, I would think that filtering out the commons and uncommons that are unique to the storyline (unless ability is extremely viable), with the reprints that don't see any money prior, that would be the pile to focus on. Commons and uncommons in expansion sets would give the flavour and setting to the storyline and the rares and mythics gives the main characters or scenarios which are relevant to the storyline. To determine whether the card is good, I'll ask questions to determine whether they fall into bulk, limited or constructed pile. The best would of course be cards that would be filtered into constructed pile;

  1. Is the card mainly for flavour or ability? Judging from name alone won't help. Read the ability.
  2. Is the card ability good?
  3. Cost to ability ratio? 
  4. Has the card been reprinted? If yes, value of the card prior reprint?
  5. Demand and supply of card?

In the case for Remand; 

  • Ability > Flavour 
  • 1U for Counterspell + draw. Great ability for relative low casting cost! 
  • I am showing the original print on the left, but it has been reprinted once.
  • Supply is still relatively abundant but demand is high due to modern format. 

The given example is quite clear whether it is a good card. There may be cards that would be relatively vague in the power level until it has been tested or played to determine the viability. However, there are some other factors which must be taken into account which affects the value of the cards; i.e. Meta and kitchen table appeal. Despite the cards having a powerful ability, but if it is not relevant to the meta and/or the effects are redundant in the format, the card value will definitely be lower than expected. Likewise, it can be absurdly expensive due to casual or EDH appeal.

The next question one would ask, is it viable to work around with commons and uncommons? I personally think that if you have the storage space and time to log everything into your inventory, it's actually a good idea. Reason is because while most of the cards may see reprints, some eventually will cease to print overtime as Wizards design newer cards that may be a pseudo-replacement or a watered-down version of the card.  Some of these cards have really great ability but yet to be tapped into due to format or meta-game redundancy, and may eventually see play at some point.  Every card will have its high and low at some point and it's something we can actually tap into. Commons and Uncommons are easier to obtain as compared to Rares and Mythics, which is precisely becoming the blind spot for most traders when their main interest is chasing the rares. Note that Uncommon and commons do spike, but at a much lower probability and many don't want to waste their time sorting and finding the singles to deal the trade. Personally, I'm looking to keep the commons and uncommons, preferably as a complete playset of them for easier sales or just following to bulk out in thousands for extra sales or trade. (In fact, I'm working to upload another file for Project: ZERO that allows trade for commons and uncommons with bulk rares.)

In short, the untapped "gold" in these common and uncommon cards are really for those who have the patience to wait and have the tenacity to keep a good record of the inventory. The are like spare sales, I would say, giving the additional cash flow when we least expect them especially when they spike. Commons and especially uncommons do see viable play in all formats but it takes time for them to take the test against time to be viable. For eternal and/or non-rotating formats, that becomes especially true. Once they have passed the tests of time, that's where the black and silver will turn into gold.



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