In continuation of my previous post and from part 1, the speculation was just something on my mind when I wrote the post. Now, to translate to my main point. I'm not trying to drive a point that I'm getting good at speculation. My purpose of this is just a reflection on what I have managed to hit/miss on my speculation and analysis when observing card trends. Sure, I have been trading for a while, but it's only recently when I embarked on the Project that I have learnt to read card trends, analyse markets and do a thorough research before my speculations. I'd admit at times that I just do a wild speculation, before doing my homework and hope for the former to be supported; which we know what kind of ending this is.
I did mentioned earlier about my various cards in my Inventory for modern sales, I actually scrapped it. Well, not really. I managed to sell for the price I more or less wanted and I bought off cards with better margins in profit value.
Sold:
3x Batterskull, ($91.00)
Assorted Rares ($55.00) [This is mainly from the bulk collection I bought. Most of these are bulk rares. The better rares are still in my Inventory]
Misc. Trade ($10.00) [Let's just put $10 to factor whatever trades I forgot into this..]
190 rares @ $0.125ea
Bought:
1x Godless Shrine Foil ($30)[EDH]
1x Overgrown Tomb (Jap) Foil ($60)[EDH; replace my current eng foil version]
Above 2 are for my EDH; I won't be selling them anytime soon
1x Overgrown Tomb Foil ($30) +1 from my EDH replacement
2x Hallowed Fountain [Traded with 190 rares]
1x Overgrown Tomb ($11)
Yes, Shocklands are what I am looking at. Yes, I did mention that as much as possible, I would not touch them. Truthfully speaking, Shocklands, with high demand, are a staple in modern decks. They were originally at $30 before reprint. If cards like Cryptic Command and Snapcaster Mage saw a resurgent in their prices, and while shocklands are going in with a much higher demand, I don't see why they will not hit back the $30 mark. In fact, upon rotation of RTR block, I'd expect the Shocklands to dip a bit before leaping back up to the high $20s.
Secondly, I'm looking beyond past this Modern season too. Assuming that we hit a $25 for a shockland, and we grab them at $12 a pc, we are looking at a 100% increment in value, and the profit margin. Looking back in comparison with what we have, The chances are, the profit margin for such cards are not as much. The % increament may be more, but the profit margin is no where near. Batterskull and Spellskite may be the closest in terms of the solid profit margin ($91 - $54, $37 profit margin from 3 singles, ~ $12/pc). That's it! The rest of the cards pretty much will see increment, but the profit margin will start to drop in its value if I hold for too long. This was the main problem for crap rares. They are basically a junk pile no one wants to dive in readily because of the profit margins being not worth the effort..
Essentially for the crap rares to be worth making, I have to move these rares fast! I have to move them such a way that even though I can make a loss at the start, the eventual end should yield me a product (card for this case) that has a potential to recover and profit. (If you are still confused as to why I am doing it this way rather than looking to just buy/profit from the card, look at my previous posts; While profits are important, I prefer to interact with traders and trade for the experience.)
Now with that being said, This moves to my third point as why I have sold some of the cards and moved to shocklands; the third being, is anticipation. A quick scan today and chat with other players/traders shows that they ARE READY! They are anticipating and stocking up the staples and waiting to offload them in this season! Whatever. The point being about the price spike and everyone wants to be the supplier, who is going to fill the demand? Ya, sure there will always be that group of people who buy in last minute, filling up the demand, but that probably worked out last year in the launch of the Modern season. Not this year. Things happen in a year and people anticipated, learnt from it (same as how I came to prep for the modern season) and position themselves to welcome the season of profits!
Now, with that cleared, I move to my last point. Since I mentioned in the first point that shocklands may see a dip in the price, but that only occurs post-RTR rotation, which occurs in this year October, what about the time from now till modern and till post RTR? Precisely my point! In theory, if the price goes up in modern season, it will dip post RTR rotation. A rough gauge of the price movement would go something like this;
$12 (now) ---- $18-20 (June/July) ----- $15 (Aug/Sept) ------ $10-$12 (Maybe oct).
If the cards now move as such a pattern (figures can be changed), I'm looking at 2 windows to purchase these lands. As modern is non-rotating, the demand will forever be there. With people rushing to look into either push to sell int the peak season, I'd expect the card prices to dip once the hype of the season dies down back to probably $12-$15 in the next window, which is post-RTR rotation, before going up exponentially from there. My points is to grab them now and if I miss this, watch the prices. As much as possible, I'd grab them below $15 for a good profit margin. For foil Shocklands, I'd grab as many as I can at $30 - $35. I'd expect them to triple in value or at least to near $90. (Original foil shocklands are already $80 - $100)
So what is the next thing I want to look into? I've actually yet to sort out my crap rares proper. I want to sort them out into true bulk and those worthy of keeping. Most of them I would move them into shocklands, but I'd want to recycle some of them into better lots of the bulk rares to ease movement and/or move them into EDH staples. I'm looking to compile a list of EDH staples that are under $2 so I can move them quickly. This would take probably 1/2 year to move them into ideal scenario, with the intention to line in-sync with the modern season. I'll talk more about this once I have managed to do the first step; Sorting! Also, I've still yet to buy in another collection; have to grab the next one soon before I deplete my inventory...
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