Saturday, April 05, 2014

Prep for Modern Madness (1)

In light of the upcoming modern season, prices are going crazily high. Ever since the banning of Deathrite Shaman, graveyard-based card prices went up. Zoo decks also saw light in the aggro scene with the un-banning of one of their key cards; Wild Nacatl. Now this is some of the main things that happened immediately after the new banned list was out and that is affecting card prices. (Bitterblossom is just a hype...) 

First things first....

A quick check shows Modern staples have already reached a new high in their prices, or are back to their original prices. If I can grab them at a relatively cheap price, why not? They're staples afterall, and will be used regardless unless they are banned. Now I have to do this with the least amount of investment and maximize the profits later. Now, assuming I have a $200 budget and if I'm going to go straight up and hit a Tarmogoyf immediate, I'm blowing a hole in the wallet; secondly, I would only acquire 1 piece for $200 and have nothing else to play around with. Then, again, it's easy to move 1 card and bank on the profits for it. 

If my past lessons ever taught me a lesson, it is to never put all my eggs in one basket. Also, I'm looking to make a profit from the spike in June, not to hoard cards or make a deck out of them. (Bant....)  I have to find cards which I can buy and reap off the profits just nicely when the modern season hits. But, I have to take note that there are people out there who are running to compete with me and as again, Singapore market is not very big.

Objective: Money!

Now that I have placed my objective in place, it's time to analyze my budget and break down as to what I can buy/have bought. Also, I do not want to touch cards that are extremely priced as of the moment now, but high in demand. I don't foresee a good profit margin in them as the buy-in is already high from the start. If by working this out and seeing that in the end I'm only moving at best a $20-30 profit from all the cards I have bought, I might as well dump the budget into my bank account and find part-time after my exams. or spend it straight on my foil walker collection and just sleep on it.
My allocated budget for this in April (actually inclusive of March) would be $200. It isn't a lot, but it's still considered a lot for what my allowance can manage. Below is the list of cards that I am buying/wanna buy over this month. Yes, the list is exactly or almost the same as every other lists I put up in my previous blog posts. I haven't had time to sell my cards and I'm building up a small inventory and will be selling in end-May till June. Selling it just before the modern season have its pros and cons. It offsets the stress of cards you have unable to offload but it comes with a price of it potentially doubling overnight because of GPT/PT results. So I have to weigh out the options carefully.

Inventory List
  • 4x Batterskull ($18ea) ------ [$72]
  • 3x Spellskite ($15ea)  ------ [$45]
  • 5x Abrupt Decay ($10ea)  ------ [$30] <<< I'm holding 2 copies prior buying
  • 2x Gavony Township ($4ea) ------ [$9]   <<< 1 from my EDH deck. I got a Jap copy to replace it @ $5
  • 5x Phyrexian Unlife ($0.50ea) ------ [$2.5]

Total Spending: $153.5 

Price Prediction for Modern Season
  • 4x Batterskull ($28ea) ------ [$112]
  • 3x Spellskite ($25ea)  ------ [$75]
  • 5x Abrupt Decay ($14ea)  ------ [$70]
  • 2x Gavony Township ($8ea) ------ [$16] 
  • 5x Phyrexian Unlife ($2.50ea) ------ [$12.5] * (high risk)

Total Revenue: $285.5 

Predicted Profit: $132 

Not too bad actually... But considering it's over the 2 months, It's around $60/month or $40/month if per say, 3 months. 
Note that this is without touching cards that have a heavy price tag to them. I cannot afford them and I will not. My aim now is to make a reasonable profit off whatever cards that spike during the modern season and just be done with it. The thing is for modern, it's an eternal format, but I can't hold these cards for too long; reprints are inevitable and the prices will dip upon reprints. That's when I'll buy back into modern; also depending on whether I have time to play.
I am also looking to improve the profit numbers over the next few months. But, as of the moment, this is what I have and what I intend to work with for the month. I also would want to keep speculating and maximize the potential profits I am able to reap off this modern season. Post-modern season would be back to just trading for my foil Planeswalkers and look at an inventory reboot for EDH market.




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