Closing Taps

Trades are quite quiet at the moment. I have yet to find another bulk collection to buy in for restock. In fact, many times I have contemplated to bulk out and re-buy, but that honestly serves me no purpose other than an immediate huge loss due to the bulking process and buy in. I'm looking to buy in rares that between $0.10 to $0.15; from what I can find online, the bulk lots are sold between $0.20 to $0.30. It's nearly impossible to sustain with that kind of buy-in. At the moment now, I'm relying on the main trade to sustain but also because of my current exam schedules I do not have the time to head down for trading. I'm looking to be trading slightly more regularly in July. At the moment now, I'm looking to either save up or invest in cards for possible price rise.

I was reviewing the expenditure and I came to realise my profit margin is not anywhere high enough to call it successful so far. I'm doing trades with a small success, yes, but not anywhere at the point where I'll say I can make a decent profit. I had a bit of time to look through the workflow of my trades and I have found loopholes which makes me profit margin seems much less than what it should be. Essentially, if I want to have a reservoir, I need to close all the leaking "taps".

As I did mentioned earlier about myself buying too much booster packs, that was one of the "taps" I have to close. The money spent in the booster packs can easily go into singles which have better economic and trading value. Financially, it's the most sound way to ensure your money is not wasted.

The second "tap" I have to close is the way my transaction is done. I usually give regular's discount to my regular buyers and sometimes will knock off a few dollars to make to a consensus, but this actually may hurt my profit margin. While sometimes it's good to do it, I have to learn to be firm in my prices and negotiate accordingly. Any trade is a deal, if you are at the losing end, it's not a good deal. That said, it's something that I have to look to control but not necessary to close it shut entirely. If I'm at risk of losing a few dollars to profit more than the loss, it may be a good thing to lose that few dollars to earn more.

Third "tap" to close; hoarding. I'm not too sure on this now. I've read several articles discussing about inventory management and stock. Having a binder full of cards is a good thing, but having to manage and keep stock is a hassle. My point is that having a large inventory is one thing, but in trading perspective, this means more cards to handle and trade, which can lead to losing track what you have traded away/for and this can make keeping stock a pain. Reason as to why this is a third "tap" is because for one, the amount spent to holster the cards with binders and sleeves are eating up money, which translates to more spent than earned. Two, unable to keep track a large inventory can lead to miscommunication on quantity of stock and potentially lose out on a deal which you could have made.

Forth, this "tap" is referring to the literal shutting out of my expanses from my card expenditure. This is the biggest problem for me. Yes, it's a simple thing but it's always the simplest thing that makes the greatest impact in your life. For this case, I mixed my expanses with my card expenditure. Yes, I know the consequences but I didn't do anything to prevent it. Every month I draw up a budget but often overspending. The predominant reason is the expenditure of cards and worse still, it was usually on booster pack opening. What's more is that I sometimes can push back the expenditure for other things so I can buy the required cards. I know the problem and I have written out here. Now I have to fix this before my money goes down the drain.

Solutions:

1. Priority, separate my card spending from my expenditures and savings. 2 Bank accounts are opened for myself, one for my savings, the other is my main expenses. I would have to draw out and keep separately for my card expenditures in another manner (secondary wallet maybe).
2. Stick to the budget. If I foresee a large spending, adjust accordingly. If I cannot manage that kind of spending, weigh out on the options of proceeding on the deal and letting go of the deal. If I can let go of it, do it.
3. Weigh out each deal; if I get nothing beneficial out from it, drop the deal.
4. Stop spending on boosters. (I'm clean as of the A-DICT-SHION article. Yay!)
5. Start saving. Time does not wait for anyone, so does opportunities.
6. Manage the inventory; sometimes I have to cut dead weight and tie up loose ends.

I want to be successful in my trading, but in order to do that, I have to make sure that I clean up myself before moving on.

Journey with the Rares

Note to self...

• Foil planeswalkers are overpriced for collections when they are in Standard meta unless they see huge play in modern/legacy formats. Buy them post rotation..
• If the foil planeswalkers are really seeing huge play in other formats outside standard, pick them up immediately within the month of release. 
• Shocklands are picking up in a rise. But exam week... Wait for it.... I'll probably pick them up just before modern season (June) and probably around September, just before or during post-rotation. It's only a short window and it's quite unlikely I may not be able to get at a good price. Most likely I'll have to get them before the price spike. 
• No boosters! If I want to ever earn money, I have to stop the leaks.

Now, I'll discuss about my review on the set's Rares

Aegis of the Gods

It's a reasonable hate card but it's no Leyline of Sanctity. It's still by general consensus that enchantments are more difficult to remove than creatures. Also, with a 2/1 stats, it's quite easy to get rid of him if needed. It maybe a new toy for modern white decks with Aether Vial builds.
($3.00)

Battlefield Thaumaturge

($1.00)

Bearer of the Heavens

Draft bomb. Unless u can cheat it into play and sac him, he's not viable for growth. 

(bulk to $1)

Deicide

Solid removal as a SB or MB option against gods. I'm pretty sure the meta will shift towards abusing gods' abilities and having this removal may wreck certain decks. Nonetheless, it's still an instant enchantment removal.

($1-$3)

Dictate of Erebos

($1.00)

Dictate of Heliod

($1.00)

Dictate of Karametra

($1.50)

Dictate of Kruphix

Who doesn't love to draw card? matches howling mine, but with a tighter restriction cost. But hey! Flash!

($2.00)

Eidolon of Blossoms

Sweet card with a sweet ability. It can be a backbone of a deck with heavy enchantments.
($2.00)

Eidolon of Great Revels

Sadly this card may not make the cut in modern. In constructed RDW may rejoice with the burn and fast creatures available, but that's pretty much the decks that will pick up as a SB card in standard, maybe... just maybe.. a card that can be used in modern R/x decks. Don't get me wrong. This card have potential, but just wait to see it picks up.

($2-$4)

Hall of Triumph

$1.00 card.. It's good for decks running heavy single colour other than white, but other than that, Honor of the Pure takes the cake.

Mana Confluence

Has City of Brass ever hit that high?! Pre-orders are gong at $20! I'll bet it'll be $5-8 once price has settled.

Master of Feast

Beast. Black is getting a boost in this set. Cards like Nighthowler and Herald of Torment are seeing a rise in play with the return of mono-black decks. This guy will fit the bill nicely into the deck. Limited bomb and a beast in constructed, I'd say that he'll be a force to be reckoned with.

($6-8 if meta wraps around him; bulk if he does not break into meta)

Setessan Tactics

Strong synergy with heroic decks. Limited bomb and possible finisher. In constructed, it won't be a meta-warping card but will be usable in certain decks.

($1.00)

Temple of Epiphany 

Temple of Malady

$4.00 upon release, ~$6 to $8 post RTR rotation. Shocklands are still around. So don't expect them to rise anything more than the price of a shockland too soon until post-rotation. (Temple of enlightenment is an outlier though..)

Bulk Rares

• Daring Thief
• Dawnbringer Charioteers
• Dictate of Twin Gods
• Doomwake Giant: -1/-1 won't hurt much... It'll rid of mana dorks, but other than that...
• Extinguish All Hope: Boardwipe & shenanigans but at 6 mana... seriously?! But, hey, mono black anyone? Only issue is that it's only viable in standard and limited.
• Harness by Force: Really? A slightly better Act of Treason... but no... not this.
• Heroes’ Bane: Cute card. Limited Bomb. If left untouched, it can grow pretty quickly and turn into a potential threat. R/G monsters! Are you picking them up? (Bulk to $1)
• Hydra Broodmaster: Interesting choice to play. He won't go beyond $1 as of now, but if R/G monsters deck or mono-green picks up, expect him to go as high as $5. With the amount of mana docks and mana fixers around, I'm sure he's not really a 6mana 7/7 but possibly a monster appearing on t5.
• Hypnotic Siren: How much was mind control and Volition Reins-like cards played? On the other side of things, she's a 1 mana 1/1 flyer.. Yay! (Bulk to $1)
• King Macar, the Gold Cursed: EDH gold! (pun intended; Bulk to $1)
• Launch the Fleet: Urgh... bulk...
• Pheres-Band Warchief:  I'm not too sure if there are much centaur creatures to form tribal. Itself would be viable in limited, but...
• Polymorphous Rush
• Revel of the Fallen God
• Scourge of Fleets: Yes.. because control decks don't troll enough.. Limited bomb
• Silence the Believers: Decent removal but... at 4cmc is a little too high to see much play outside limited
• Skybind: Casual Fun, but bulk...
• Spawn of Thraxes:  Draft bomb if you run heavy red. It's quite close to a Bogardan Hellkite. But, outside limited, bust.
• Twinflame

Summary: 

I won't pick up any cards in the pre-order at the moment. At pre-release to release week, the cards are not stable in their prices; the prices will go likely to dip before anything rises in the next PTQ event. However, I do want to keep a look out of the following cards;

• Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
• Athreos, God of Passage 
• Iroas, God of Victory 
• Keranos, God of Storms 
• Kruphix, God of Horizons
• Pharika, God of Affliction
• Godsend
• Deicide
• Eidolon of Blossoms
• Temple of Epiphany
• Temple of Malady

Priority buy first hand would be the Temples. I'm not a Standard player, but definitive profit here in the coming season would be the temples. Keranos and Iroas would be second in line for a top pick for standard, Athreos will be a close third.'ll probably pick up Ajani foil for my collection as priority if it hits under $30. For the rest, I'd just want to see how the market demand will affect the prices for their appeal.

Commons/Uncommons to look out (27th April Edit)

• Magma Spray
• Banishing Light
• Eidolon of Rhetoric
• Hubris
• Nyx Weaver

Review of the Journey - Mythic (updated)

(Update note: I posted this up about a few days back and I realised that the formatting was crap and I took it down to redo the format. Also, while I am doing that, I did some changes to the review of the set and I have added additional comments about the individual cards where needed.)

This post has taken awhile because of the research I have to do up (no not really.. I'm kinda lazy to research so many cards). Personally, I'm thrilled with the new set. It's much better than Born of the Gods. Now let's hope to see not just money cards, but cards that are actually powerful and fun to play with. 

Note that the prices I stated are estimated for prior RTR rotation.

Mythic Rares

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

Finally a G/W Planeswalker!!! The first 2 abilities are actually quite powerful in standard. Heroic decks? or maybe just some midrange beatdown? Regardless, his not something that to be taken lightly. His last ability however... well... erm... it's a game winner for sure, but... seriously? 100 life as the ultimate? 4 loyalty starter meant his out from bolt and helix range, but I'm not too sure if any modern decks will pick him up. Keep a look out; he's still viable in EDH and standard! Just note that Planeswalkers have a curve. So like any others, Ajani will eventually see a rise due to a demand. Also, as a collector's point of appeal, he is the first and only G/W Planeswalker to be in the border we are familiar with until M15.

($10-$15)

Godsend

Almost a sword or a Batterskull... but... almost. Limited Bomb and EDH viable with artifact/equipment builds...It's definitely more difficult to cast, and if looking for P/T boost outside Standard, there's definitely better equipments out there. For the ability, It's better as a defensive measure rather than offensive. Yes, an offensive option is available, but not really outside standard. It's good but it's not something that I'll jump on immediately. I'd say hold out from this first. I love the art though... Imagine a foil in demand would be insanely expensive.

($4-$5)

Gods from Journey to Nyx expansion set are significantly more viable and have much better abilities than the Born of the Gods in general. But, most of the abilities for all 15 Gods are viable in constructed and it really depends on how the meta shifts to adopt them into their play post RTR rotation. As of now, I'd say all of them are limited bombs and have great appeal to EDH. However, specifically probably only one or two of them are viable to be potentially played in modern. I'm eyeing at Athreos, God of Passage as priority. The following step down would be Keranos, Iroas, Kruphix, which then lastly would be Pharika .

Athreos, God of Passage

Athreos, God of Passage is 3 cmc, has relevant abilities in constructed against sweepers and really nerve wrecking to face him. I'd say he's one of the most powerful God in this set. If I were to pick one good to invest, it might well be him. Likely to be modern viable, relevant casting cost, potentially starting out a deck around him.(?) (Note, M15 is giving black an extremely powerful card. So guess where the money is going.)

($10-$15)

Iroas, God of Victory

Iroas is very relevant in standard, but until R/W aggro sees play in modern, that's pretty much where he will be until EDH picks him up.

($10-$15)

Keranos, God of Storms 
U/R Control shell will have some serious fun with Keranos. It gives a card advantage to overlook your land draw and/or bolts your opponent with another answer on hand. The amount of advantage you get with Keranos is seriously underestimated if you think he's not a great card.
($10-$15)

Kruphix, God of Horizons

Kruphixis shouting to be played in U/G/x decks in standard and screaming even louder to be in EDH! An Omnath, Locus of Mana 2.0 with a Spellbook, what's not to love this guy?

($8)

Pharika, God of Affliction

Pharika is also 3 cmc and has creature graveyard hate/rinse and re-use, but she loses out to Scavenging Ooze flat out in flexibility. Maybe... it's a wild dream though, that she may go hand in hand with Ooze.
($8; floor at $5)

Prophetic Flamespeaker

Potentially to be modern viable but I'm not betting on this. A unique ability, but.. is it possible to really pull this off? If so, it's a really good card to base around as a disruption strategy, but if not, it's probably card waiting to be abused in later expansions.
($5)

Sage of Hours

Now let's think about this, if we can pull this off, it's an extremely powerful card. But, more likely than not, this will usually take bait to a removal. I'm not too sure for this card. It really can go crazy if it picks up as a combo in standard control. At the moment now, I would wait for results before going crazy for it. I doubt it will jump too high in price so soon.
I won't say it'll hit anything more than $3.

Worst Fears

Draft bomb if you can pull it off. But bulk mythic nonetheless

Psychology of the Booster Gamble

This post was planned immediately after my prior post about my resolution to stop buying boosters, but I didn't have the time to write this to post on the same day. I don't major in psychology; only did a minor course about it but enough to learn the basics of it and I will not use any context of it to avoid complication. But, while I am on the subject of gambling; i.e, the gamble of luck in opening booster packs for profit, I want to reflect more about this.

Let's talk about the gamble when opening a booster pack. I pay $4 to gamble against the odds in opening a good rare/mythic rare that is either playable or profitable. We can easily Google to find the stats in which the odds of opening a particular card, a foil and the odds of profiting from the booster pack; I'm not going to post this here, but we can safely assume the above 2 has less than the odds of 0.05% to hit jackpot, while the other may probably see around 20% to make profit; the value depends on the expansion size and the demand of the play. Now here is the thing; the odds of hitting jackpot may increase as I buy more packs, but the odds of profit actually decreases! Follow me on this one; Assuming you want a rare foil, just any rare foil from a booster box. It's guaranteed that there is a foil rare/mythic rare per booster box, so odds are 1/36. If I buy the second pack, the odds will decrease to 1/35 and so on until I buy the last pack and I'll be guaranteed to open the foil rare. (Basically the numbers should converge to 1 if I add them up, i.e. 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + ...) Hold on! Because from the profit point of view, the rare I open or the combined value of the 15 cards per booster pack must be above $4, as I buy more, the odds of me profiting will decrease. Why?  It's proven that it is unlikely to earn from a booster box, especially for a large expansion set and we know that per expansion set don't usually have crazy priced rares which are almost the price of a booster box. Let's not talk about JTMS and his gang... Those are pretty much exceptions and even if we are looking at the prices now, WWK expansion booster boxes are going at around $500+ per box. Also, as I said, the odds of profiting from a booster pack may be at around 20% optimistically, and  combined with the fact that earning from a booster box is nearly impossible, there is this threshold or peak in which we will hit at which the point where we are making a loss and whatever cards sold from there are merely recovery of the prior expenditure. Hence, as we open more packs, we are looking at a larger amount to cover and this decreases the profit margin more. To sum up, we are looking at buying more to increase the odds of getting what we want, but at the losing end, we aren't actually profiting from our booster openings. 

Remember the roll-over concept I was talking about in the previous post? The one which I open a rare more than $4 and I will think of a free roll to open another pack? Yes that one! The thing for this is the mindset of the gambler. For instance, I open a Shockland from a booster pack. With Shocklands are going at around ~$12 and the booster pack from RTR expansion are going at say $4 for simplicity purpose, I actually will make a $8 profit. However, generally I would not stop there. I would probably think something like, "Hey, I've $8 more to spare, let's open another 2 packs and see our luck!" Why? RTR block has other profitable rares for the modern format like Abrupt Decay, Sphinx's Revelation, Deathrite Shaman (Banned, but still in demand for Legacy) and as discussed above, the odds of opening a specific rare increases as I open more. Hence, I'd roll that $8 to another 2 packs to open something else which may reap a profit. After all, hey, it's a free roll! The worst is that I am spending $12 for a Shockland + 2 other rares and a few other goodies as throw in! Yes, that's still quite a reasonable deal, but look at this, from the initial $8 profit, and roll, I've decreased my profit to nearly nothing, or whatever amount the 2 rares combined. Assuming that if both rares do not make the $4 recovery value, I've cut my profit from $8 to less than $8.

Now here is another thing; temptation is a huge factor. You open a couple of boosters and you get crap. You see another guy pick up a pack and he opened a really good rare which covers his booster spending. I'd dare say you'll be tempted to keep opening to try to cover back the loss. (As discussed above, higher odds right?) It may work that you actually cover your loss, but end result? instead of spending let's say $20 from the 5 boosters, you probably spend twice or thrice the amount and probably you covered back 20%. Let's stick to that, it may be more, but the end loss is still going to be more than that amount you spend (lost) initially despite the cover-ups.

The third factor is slightly less relevant to me, but regarding about thrill seekers who seek the thrill in opening packs as I mentioned in the previous post, I don't have much of an opinion on this as I personally do not open packs for the thrill. I do that for the fun... wait maybe there is a connection and assuming the connection holds, it would probably go something like buying the booster pack just for no rhyme or reason and just want to open to see what you open. Normally this would be because that of the person will want to seek satisfaction or enjoyment. The thrill factor would provide that sense of satisfaction or enjoyment that he/she is looking for; for the other instance, it's not about curiosity but it would probably be more of doing it without an objective. (It's like how the Joker kills and cause havoc without any reason. He simply just do it.) I cannot explain the reason specifically, but that's pretty much close to what I can think of in words. Thrill seekers probably would start out for the fun or for satisfying that need for a thrill, but as when they open more packs, they would turn to their mindset to find ways to cover their loss; while they are at it, more packs! Getting a box prices would mean a significant cheaper per booster price. That's the immediate way to cover losses. The next would probably be bringing up the gamble to the next level; Pack war. If you are unfamiliar with Pack war, the game is simple. Open your packs and bet with your rare or any valuable uncommons. There are a few auto-win conditions, like getting a foil rare or the money card of the set. But, normally everyone will open the packs and reveal their rares and they will check the value on an established pricing site. The winner will take all the rares in the pool; in the event of a draw, they will roll-over into the next round of booster opening. (see what I mean!) I personally participated once, and managed to walked away winning. But, that is after losing horribly in my own opening spree. The thrill level is definitely higher. It's like double-or-nothing; the stakes are much higher and so are the rewards. I've seen players opening a few boxes at a go when playing this. In the end, it only matters to them if they cover up their losses as much as possible, but not about profit. 

I know not all of us share the idea of profiting from a card game, but as a personal opinion to look as a way for a small secondary income, I have to look at this in a way that is financially profitable.

A-DICT-Shion

I'm not going to deny it. While I've cut down a lot in my booster spending, I am still far from being "clean". I mean... you get it right? That box of booster @ $4 each, with a chance of opening a shockland or that foil Planeswalker to add on to the binder; or a sweet power card that automatically reaps a profit by resale. The motivation behind it? The thrill of getting the unknown and the gamble for profits.

The truth is, I know the odds of getting what we want from booster whacking. I also know how fast money flies the moment I crack open that booster. Chances of me earning is much lower than what I do by resale and/or with the Project. Yes, I know all of these; I know consequences but the problem is still in the motivation as mentioned earlier. 

I used to blow out hundreds on booster pack. When I wasn't really into trading yet I basically open for the the thrill; Just opening the packs for the fun of it, hoping to get something interesting as like a card you never see before for example, or a card that goes into the casual deck that I just made a week ago... Until I struck my first goldmine. I cracked a rare that was going ten times of the booster pack I paid. Essentially, I made a profit! That feeling was unforgettable! That surge of excitement and that smile on my face! From then I learnt that the cards had value in them; There is a potential gold mine out there and is waiting for me to start hitting into it. That's when I slowly picked up trading. I didn't know what I was doing at the start; I didn't know the existence of the local forums, or the price websites until much later. So I started opening packs. It was 1 at first, then 1 became 2. It then became 10. Before I knew it, I was opening 30 to 40 packs at a go. I got box discounts still. I made friends with a guy at a Comics Connection store near my place who is willingly to help me start off my trading experience. I know the numbers would probably be insignificant to many of you who open crates or cartons at a go; mind you, I am a student with very restricted budget as my allowance expenditure is only enough to get by the month; most of my card spending is from the savings within and from my salary I got when I was working as a Temp. Staff back then when I just graduated from Polytechnic. In the more recent years, I solely rely on resale recoups and small profits to fund my booster expenditures.

As I go on, I realize the profit margin is always in the negative zone. It means I can never make a profit long term in this. I gradually moved towards to learn about card trading, while still frequently whacking boosters, especially during the release of Avacyn Restored and Return to Ravnica expansions. It slowly kind of got into an addiction during my Army days, where it got into a point when I blew 90% of the meagre allowance I had on booster packs and getting back almost none of the money. To date, I lost about $6000 in booster whacking. (This became my motivation to start trading proper and speculations. I have yet to get back the amount...)

As I start to progress in my trading journey and meeting more people, I realized that the profits from booster spending will never be profits as I will always have a gambler's mindset of "free-roll"; essentially, if I open a single rare that has the same value as a booster pack, it's a free-roll to buy another booster pack. If I open a rare more than the pack value, it means I get to open that many extra for free. Eventually, this means I'm already targeting to lose money from the start. How can I earn money if I am willingly throwing away my money into a gamble of luck? Secondly, a simple mathematical calculation shows that a booster box is more economical in value as compared to buying packs to the same value. Hence... that.

I talked to a few traders and there are a few who are really nice guys who actually gives sound advice; I remember the turning point was when one of them told me that the amount I threw into boosters will forever be more than what I get back; while I may hit the goldmine occasionally, how much longer will my luck play around before I eventually run into a bad streak, or worse, become into an addiction where I can no longer kick it. Another was much later, where I chatted with a trader to understand the deeper psychology about the thrill and urge to crack open cases (I only hit box-amounts... never by the cases). I was well-aware that if I don't stop, I would hit there eventually and in the end, I'm losing money to a hobby and causing more psychological harm than I can think of. It came to the point of my understanding that there is the urge in opening cos you know you feel the luck is with you. (Many times it's a false sense of excitement) And, there are times when you "calculated the odds in opening something good" and you are confident in it. The third reason was that these people just want the experience; they want a story to boast or share with other people they meet. The third reason baffled me the most. But, all 3 voice to the same thing in the end; Gambling.

The first and second are examples of gambling for profit. You want to earn that quick buck, so you gamble with your luck to get that quick profit. Most of the time it WILL backfire, forcing you to roll into more packs opened, increasing the loss margin. The third may not be obvious, but actually, you are gambling. Not for profit, but for the thrill of it. It just become a craving/urge or just that feeling to satisfy that adrenaline rush; often, this may come with examples one and/or two. 

There is a difference between investing and gambling. At the start, I, too, was gambling. While I did not incur a loan debt, I lost my savings from my previous temp work, my allowances in the Army, and somewhere the additional bonus cash I have on hand. From last year, my secret resolution was to cut down my booster expenditure by more than 50%. I eventually made to the target as myself opening less than 20 packs at a time with an average of 2 sprees a month (even more recently, less than 10), but I'm still cracking boosters whenever I'm stressed from studies or unhappy with the events in my life. It became from an addiction, to a source of joy for me; I even once said to a friend that it's sad that a stack of cards can make me happy. (But, hey, whatever goes right?) While I did make the target in cutting my booster whacking, I am still unhappy whenever I think about the sprees I did. It felt great at the moment, but there are times when I just feel totally shit when I lost all my money in the boosters and having not getting back a single cent. Most of the times my luck isn't that great; I could probably count the number of times I struck gold, but I could not count the number of times I walked out of the card shops or stores feeling shit. Just only today (yesterday for that matter) I lost $50 in my whacking. In my head, I suddenly snapped, "I could have gotten a play-set of shocks for that! Or what about that foil walker you have been eyeing on?!" Yea, it's another counter to the shit-feeling-experiences for boosters. 

I have to stop whacking boosters!! 

I have to weigh out the value; Either I blow $50 on the booster pack to open something of the unknown, or the Shockland or staple cards or Foil walker. Sometimes When I weigh out the values, that's when I feel stupid in decision I make. Seriously, I don't get to U-turn all the time! If I don't stop, I will have no money to complete my other To-dos, eventually running out of money and forget about making profits; I can just get into a debt and never get out of the pool! I MUST STOP!

My ideas/ways to stop myself from opening booster packs

• Stay away from the main counter of card shops. That's where people usually buy and crack boosters. That way, I may be able to tame the urge to join in and buy.
• I know I suck at drafting. So if I am really feeling the urge to buy a pack. Sign up for a draft event! I know I won't do well in such events so I'll probably get sick of it and stop eventually
• If I can't get into a draft event, Walk to the nearest binder, pick up that Shockland or foil Planeswalker and pay that lucky fella. If my money has to go into MTG, it has to go into something I value or have a potential value to increase in price.
• If problem still persists, buy food! (not sure if it works)

The bottom-line of this reflection is this; If I don't close all leaking taps, I will never see the pool.

Prep for Modern Madness (2)

In continuation of my previous post and from part 1, the speculation was just something on my mind when I wrote the post. Now, to translate to my main point. I'm not trying to drive a point that I'm getting good at speculation. My purpose of this is just a reflection on what I have managed to hit/miss on my speculation and analysis when observing card trends. Sure, I have been trading for a while, but it's only recently when I embarked on the Project that I have learnt to read card trends, analyse markets and do a thorough research before my speculations. I'd admit at times that I just do a wild speculation, before doing my homework and hope for the former to be supported; which we know what kind of ending this is.

I did mentioned earlier about my various cards in my Inventory for modern sales, I actually scrapped it. Well, not really. I managed to sell for the price I more or less wanted and I bought off cards with better margins in profit value.

Sold: 

3x Batterskull, ($91.00)

Assorted Rares ($55.00) [This is mainly from the bulk collection I bought. Most of these are bulk rares. The better rares are still in my Inventory]

Misc. Trade ($10.00) [Let's just put $10 to factor whatever trades I forgot into this..]

190 rares @ $0.125ea

Bought: 

1x Godless Shrine Foil ($30)[EDH]

1x Overgrown Tomb (Jap) Foil ($60)[EDH; replace my current eng foil version]

Above 2 are for my EDH; I won't be selling them anytime soon

1x Overgrown Tomb Foil ($30) +1 from my EDH replacement

2x Hallowed Fountain [Traded with 190 rares]

1x Overgrown Tomb ($11)

Yes, Shocklands are what I am looking at. Yes, I did mention that as much as possible, I would not touch them. Truthfully speaking, Shocklands, with high demand, are a staple in modern decks. They were originally at $30 before reprint. If cards like Cryptic Command and Snapcaster Mage saw a resurgent in their prices, and while shocklands are going in with a much higher demand, I don't see why they will not hit back the $30 mark. In fact, upon rotation of RTR block, I'd expect the Shocklands to dip a bit before leaping back up to the high $20s.

Secondly, I'm looking beyond past this Modern season too. Assuming that we hit a $25 for a shockland, and we grab them at $12 a pc, we are looking at a 100% increment in value, and the profit margin. Looking back in comparison with what we have, The chances are, the profit margin for such cards are not as much. The % increament may be more, but the profit margin is no where near. Batterskull and Spellskite may be the closest in terms of the solid profit margin ($91 - $54, $37 profit margin from 3 singles, ~ $12/pc). That's it! The rest of the cards pretty much will see increment, but the profit margin will start to drop in its value if I hold for too long. This was the main problem for crap rares. They are basically a junk pile no one wants to dive in readily because of the profit margins being not worth the effort..

Essentially for the crap rares to be worth making, I have to move these rares fast! I have to move them such a way that even though I can make a loss at the start, the eventual end should yield me a product (card for this case) that has a potential to recover and profit. (If you are still confused as to why I am doing it this way rather than looking to just buy/profit from the card, look at my previous posts; While profits are important, I prefer to interact with traders and trade for the experience.)

Now with that being said, This moves to my third point as why I have sold some of the cards and moved to shocklands; the third being, is anticipation. A quick scan today and chat with other players/traders shows that they ARE READY! They are anticipating and stocking up the staples and waiting to offload them in this season! Whatever. The point being about the price spike and everyone wants to be the supplier, who is going to fill the demand? Ya, sure there will always be that group of people who buy in last minute, filling up the demand, but that probably worked out last year in the launch of the Modern season. Not this year. Things happen in a year and people anticipated, learnt from it (same as how I came to prep for the modern season) and position themselves to welcome the season of profits!

Now, with that cleared, I move to my last point. Since I mentioned in the first point that shocklands may see a dip in the price, but that only occurs post-RTR rotation, which occurs in this year October, what about the time from now till modern and till post RTR? Precisely my point! In theory, if the price goes up in modern season, it will dip post RTR rotation. A rough gauge of the price movement would go something like this;

$12 (now) ---- $18-20 (June/July) ----- $15 (Aug/Sept) ------ $10-$12 (Maybe oct). 

If the cards now move as such a pattern (figures can be changed), I'm looking at 2 windows to purchase these lands. As modern is non-rotating, the demand will forever be there. With people rushing to look into either push to sell int the peak season, I'd expect the card prices to dip once the hype of the season dies down back to probably $12-$15 in the next window, which is post-RTR rotation, before going up exponentially from there. My points is to grab them now and if I miss this, watch the prices. As much as possible, I'd grab them below $15 for a good profit margin. For foil Shocklands, I'd grab as many as I can at $30 - $35. I'd expect them to triple in value or at least to near $90. (Original foil shocklands are already $80 - $100)

So what is the next thing I want to look into? I've actually yet to sort out my crap rares proper. I want to sort them out into true bulk and those worthy of keeping. Most of them I would move them into shocklands, but I'd want to recycle some of them into better lots of the bulk rares to ease movement and/or move them into EDH staples. I'm looking to compile a list of EDH staples that are under $2 so I can move them quickly. This would take probably 1/2 year to move them into ideal scenario, with the intention to line in-sync with the modern season. I'll talk more about this once I have managed to do the first step; Sorting! Also, I've still yet to buy in another collection; have to grab the next one soon before I deplete my inventory...

Hit and Run

Was looking at this article last night, and it struck me, I haven't reviewed my predictions as to what cards went up/down since the start of the year. I did a brief recollection of my thoughts and was pretty amazed in my hits. I've decided to list down to what I have predicted and what I have missed

Hits!

• Desecration Demon: TOO Powerful to be a $0.50 card back then. I expected the rise of the card to $4 - $6. I didn't expect it to hit $10 as its max value.
• Snapcaster Mage: $40 card. Too powerful to remain in the $20 ranges.. Only thing I regret about this is selling too early cos in the lack of faith I had in my predictions
• Geist of Saint Traft: Same as above. He's really a powerhouse. Anyone disagree can really take a hit on their head; a t2 geist with hierarch and followed by a t3 elspeth is not a joke. Really no joke.
• Restoration Angel: Holding.. $8 seems a pretty good price on her. But I'm expecting her to hit $12 again
• Thalia, Guardian of Thraben: Sold my first set at $15, bought back at around $16. Now each is worth $7-$8. I'm predicting it to go up to $10
• Batterskull: Missed it when it shot up to $15. I bought mine at $18. Now it's $25 :D
• Spellskite: Sold my original 2 and bought 3 at $15. I'm holding these till $25!
• Noble Hierarch: My best investment to date; I bought a playset at $70, then held on to it while playing Bant.. Eventually sold it off at $50 each. (could go higher, but I'm happy enough with it)
• Rageblood Shaman: $0.50 to $1. Nothing to be proud of but it's still something...

Miss!

• Supreme Verdict: (Thought it will hit $10, but disappointingly, it only hit $6 at max.)
• Fetchlands: I expected them to hit 100, but never got the funding to buy them
• Temple of Enlightenment: I never expect it to hit $9... I did mention it will be the best, but not at $9!
• Deathrite Shaman: Who would have thought this guy will get banned?! Luckily I sold my jap copy at $23 while it's still worth it.

The above are just the first things in mind I can think of; I don't admit that I have an amazing track record. Most are from more established traders and very few are by my own speculations. But, it is an amazing feeling that if I am able to hit the speculation right and able to cash out on the effort.

The thing is that I have never really mentioned about my speculations and where I checked my prices. I usually don't refer to a single website for prices. I usually do a cross-reference with a few websites and do an average. mtg-index is my latest resource website I've added in. Normally I would source TCG-mid and MTGPrice as my buying (high) price. Best I would be able to get it at TCG-low, but here in Singapore, no one uses the TCG-low. Alternatively, I can source out local forums and do a rough gauge in what are the card prices they are selling and I usually put 20% less as my buy price.

For Selling price, I'd just use a round up avg of MTG-price/TCG-Mid and Starcitygames. This applies when I'm looking at cards with value; otherwise for crap rares, it'll just be a standard $0.14 for every 500pcs I am getting.

A quick update for today, I'll post another over the weekends.

Prep for Modern Madness (1)

In light of the upcoming modern season, prices are going crazily high. Ever since the banning of Deathrite Shaman, graveyard-based card prices went up. Zoo decks also saw light in the aggro scene with the un-banning of one of their key cards; Wild Nacatl. Now this is some of the main things that happened immediately after the new banned list was out and that is affecting card prices. (Bitterblossom is just a hype...) 

First things first....

A quick check shows Modern staples have already reached a new high in their prices, or are back to their original prices. If I can grab them at a relatively cheap price, why not? They're staples afterall, and will be used regardless unless they are banned. Now I have to do this with the least amount of investment and maximize the profits later. Now, assuming I have a $200 budget and if I'm going to go straight up and hit a Tarmogoyf immediate, I'm blowing a hole in the wallet; secondly, I would only acquire 1 piece for $200 and have nothing else to play around with. Then, again, it's easy to move 1 card and bank on the profits for it. 

If my past lessons ever taught me a lesson, it is to never put all my eggs in one basket. Also, I'm looking to make a profit from the spike in June, not to hoard cards or make a deck out of them. (Bant....)  I have to find cards which I can buy and reap off the profits just nicely when the modern season hits. But, I have to take note that there are people out there who are running to compete with me and as again, Singapore market is not very big.

Objective: Money!

Now that I have placed my objective in place, it's time to analyze my budget and break down as to what I can buy/have bought. Also, I do not want to touch cards that are extremely priced as of the moment now, but high in demand. I don't foresee a good profit margin in them as the buy-in is already high from the start. If by working this out and seeing that in the end I'm only moving at best a $20-30 profit from all the cards I have bought, I might as well dump the budget into my bank account and find part-time after my exams. or spend it straight on my foil walker collection and just sleep on it.

My allocated budget for this in April (actually inclusive of March) would be $200. It isn't a lot, but it's still considered a lot for what my allowance can manage. Below is the list of cards that I am buying/wanna buy over this month. Yes, the list is exactly or almost the same as every other lists I put up in my previous blog posts. I haven't had time to sell my cards and I'm building up a small inventory and will be selling in end-May till June. Selling it just before the modern season have its pros and cons. It offsets the stress of cards you have unable to offload but it comes with a price of it potentially doubling overnight because of GPT/PT results. So I have to weigh out the options carefully.

Inventory List

• 4x Batterskull ($18ea) ------ [$72]
• 3x Spellskite ($15ea)  ------ [$45]
• 5x Abrupt Decay ($10ea)  ------ [$30] <<< I'm holding 2 copies prior buying
• 2x Gavony Township ($4ea) ------ [$9]   <<< 1 from my EDH deck. I got a Jap copy to replace it @ $5
• 5x Phyrexian Unlife ($0.50ea) ------ [$2.5]

Total Spending: $153.5 

Price Prediction for Modern Season

• 4x Batterskull ($28ea) ------ [$112]
• 3x Spellskite ($25ea)  ------ [$75]
• 5x Abrupt Decay ($14ea)  ------ [$70]
• 2x Gavony Township ($8ea) ------ [$16] 
• 5x Phyrexian Unlife ($2.50ea) ------ [$12.5] * (high risk)

Total Revenue: $285.5 

Predicted Profit: $132 

Not too bad actually... But considering it's over the 2 months, It's around $60/month or $40/month if per say, 3 months. 

Note that this is without touching cards that have a heavy price tag to them. I cannot afford them and I will not. My aim now is to make a reasonable profit off whatever cards that spike during the modern season and just be done with it. The thing is for modern, it's an eternal format, but I can't hold these cards for too long; reprints are inevitable and the prices will dip upon reprints. That's when I'll buy back into modern; also depending on whether I have time to play.

I am also looking to improve the profit numbers over the next few months. But, as of the moment, this is what I have and what I intend to work with for the month. I also would want to keep speculating and maximize the potential profits I am able to reap off this modern season. Post-modern season would be back to just trading for my foil Planeswalkers and look at an inventory reboot for EDH market.