Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Project: Zer0 Speculation - Remand, Spellskite, Aven Mindcensor in MM2015?

Okay... I was thinking of doing a full coverage in speculating what cards that would come out but in the end, it is too time-consuming. I had to wade through hundreds of cards just to pick and list, which after that comment on every single one? C'mon! I'm not doing that! It's too boring and it's gonna eat up a lot of my time..
In short, I don't have the time to churn out articles that took would take too long.. So, I decided to take a different route from others. Many articles and forum posts out there are going around in several cards on the potential reprints that we would see and yes, I'm going to do just that. But, I'm going to pick those that are relatively less discussed and/or those that are ignored due to recent reprints or well, just because people think they are not viable to be reprinted..


First up, Spellskite made into my list of rares that would likely see reprints. I personally think this would be a viable candidate to see reprint in Modern Masters 2015. It's functionality as a card to hose decks is really incomparable. It can take down decks like Burn, Auras, Twin, Bloom Titan, Infect and the list just continues to climb... It is one of the best sideboard card in Modern. Splashable and cheap in its casting cost and activation ability, it's definitely a darn good pick for future modern usage.
In the past 3 years, it has seen 2 spikes and it actually only continued to climb ever since it was released. I did mention in the one of my earlier articles that Spellskite would easily hit $22-$25 range and I wanted to hold them out until they hit $25 range. I sold them last year at about $22, making a small profit of about $5 each. Should I have kept them? Hmm.. well maybe... But, if it is going to see reprint, it would be a good decision to sell them then right?


Aven Mindcensor picked up a lot of grounds over the past few years as we see fetches and other tutor effects come into Modern Format. It for one, shuts down strategies on a evasive beatstick and on top of that, it can be casted on instant speed. It is one of my favourite sideboard cards, which effectively can shut down or at least give these decks problems; Bloom Titan, Tron, Scapeshift, or probably just decks which fetches a lot and are 1-2 lands behind you. Right, even if the opponent kills it the next turn, it still has done its job in slowing down or shutting down the tutor ability, making the deck less consistent at least by a turn. It's enough to cause games to tilt favours in the right moments!
While we couldn't see the clearly on the graph, it was around $0.50 when I first started playing Magic in the rotating Alara block (~2011 era). It spiked to $2, $4, and then to $8 when RTR was released. It later climbed to what we see in the graph above, at around $10-$11. 
Gauging it as a uncommon, it's too expensive and really, it's really expensive for an uncommon. Yes sure, Force of Will, Wastelands and some other overpowered commons/uncommon piles beat the $50/$100 marks, and well yes, this is $10 for the same reason; scarcity. Imagine if there was a reprint for those cards. Would the prices still stay that high? Maybe actually... So I'm just shooting myself here... 
The point is that it is because these cards run mainboard, in Legacy, in multiple decks. The demand hence would be high enough to make the prices to be that high. Similarly, the demand for aven mindcensor did go up, but not to that level of breaking the $100 or even $50 mark is only because of the relative scarcity and the supply/demand for the card. Nevertheless, what I'm trying to say here is that if this really gets reprinted, just don't expect it to go back up to $8 for no reason!


Finally, this one is a little more controversial. I have done discussions with other players about the possible uncommon reprints in Modern Masters 2015, and many listed Lightning Bolt, Gitaxian Probes, Forked Bolt, Aven Mindcensor (much lesser, but still relevant), shattering spree, etc.. But, almost no one actually mentioned this card. It's not like they have forgotten this card. No. They were very very convinced that this card will not see reprint in MM2015.
I for one, reject the idea that this would not see reprint. A very good example would be Path to Exile; that card saw several reprints within a rather short period of time. Yes, they came in mostly supplement products like Duel decks, archenemy, commanders, etc. But, it still saw a reprint in  the first Modern Masters! The reason given to me was exactly that; Remand was reprinted in a Duel Deck not too long ago and it doesn't make sense to see reprint so soon. Heck! We get Negates and Duress every year... Your point?
Okay, seriously, this card fits the bill to be reprinted because it's really one of the best counterspells we have in Modern (Cryptic Command is definitive, but we can argue on that another day...) and the thing is that this card barely saw much reprint other than the recent duel decks. Also, do note that MM2015 may be a larger print, but it is still significantly a much smaller print run than the main expansions. If we can put it in another way, it's another supplement product, but of a premium price. So, if we are going to be worried in crashing the price market overnight, it's not going to happen. 
All I can think of is the reason why this is not to be reprinted is that people just don't believe that a reprint can occur that fast and that soon. But, realistically speaking, there is no stopping wizards from doing it. If that reprint makes the product much more appealing, why not?

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Dragons of Tarkir... The Dragon set that we have been waiting for! [First Look!]


Well, not for me. I'm more in the side of the Angels as my preferred tribe. Okay, Allies too! But nevertheless, it's still an exciting set to anticipate with all the dragons roaming around. As again, this article focus more on the appeal to my casual side and not so much for competitive or finance. The numbers are just there to count the Top 10, but the cards are not ranked in any order.

Number 10: Atarka's Command

This is a solid card. it's the cheapest in the command cycle, even with in the lorwyn expansion ones. I won't say that this is the most powerful of all the commands, but by itself, it's an extremely powerful card. I'm foreseeing this being played in multiple formats. More specifically, in RDW burn decks. Sure, the other decks may look to play this but I think this is the card that gives the best boost to burn decks. Though usually my First Look! Articles don't cover finance, this is a card that I'm readily going to spec on for this expansion.

Number 9: Collected Company

Too bad this isn't 3 cmc... it'll wreck havoc in Tiny Leaders. That being said, it looks to be a very very fun card to play with and I may look to abuse this in EDH or probably in Standard Constructed. Not something I'll spec on like Atarka's Command though.

Number 8: Descent of the Dragons

Holy... Sheeeiiitt... Imagine you have a small army getting their asses whooped! Then you cast this, and suddenly you command an army of Dragons to get revenge! EDH anyone? Hey on that line, Eldrazi Monument looks a heck load more fun with this card. 

Number 7: Dragonlord Dromoka

I'm a sucker for good Selesnya cards okay... So I'm more Biased towards this card than the rest! That said, this card's strength is that it cannot be countered and it prevents any opponent to cast spells during your turn. It's very likely to be viable in EDH decks that loves to do soft lock on your own turn and do some ape-shit crazy things like... I don't know... I'm playing Ghave already... That's ape-shit crazy by itself! 

Number 6: Myth Realized

Unless your opponent have some form of removal for enchantment, this card is incredibly fun to play with. If nothing else, it's a nice mana sink in late game and it scales well it you look into playing non-creature spells like burn or counter. It could be a good midrange or control card in some situations where this itself can be a good vanilla pressure card or finisher. Nothing else, it's just a fun card. 

Number 5: Narset Transcendent

Seems underwhelming at first, but I can assure you she is extremely powerful! The first ability at worst is a scry, but at best is a useful card advantage. Having the rebound is like another Snapcaster Mage in your deck and trust me, most of the time, the rebound is worth it. The last ability is just plain silly; having that to lockdown your opponent like that is one thing, but actually pulling this off in standard, please take a video of the game, I wanna see it!

Number 4: Ojutai Exemplars

I am pretty much a sucker for utility... This card is breaming with potential to be played. Plus, I love the artwork for this card! shao lin monks references as shown above! 

Number 3: Sidisi, Undead Vizier

Rune-Scarred Demon... Period... It's a weaker version, but still nevertheless, it's holding potential to be played. Even if nothing else, It earns a spot in my EDH deck.

Number 2: Swift Warkite

You know how I said I love utility? Read this card properly... It's a hand/graveyard recursion of a creature with cmc 3 or less... It's not exactly Sun Titan level of power, but it still get something done. For an uncommon level, I'm pleased with the ability. Plus, Look at that sick artwork! I'm betting the foils are going to be sick!

Number 1: Sarkhan Unbroken

Normally, I'll go apeshit with sick planeswalker with sick artwork... But, I'm just gonna leave this here as the number 1 spot for you guys to admire this. This is a definite powerhouse in standard and EDH formats.. Unless we see some form of utilizing him, maybe not in modern... Nevertheless, it's a great card!

Friday, March 13, 2015

What I bought and why? [9-13 march 2015]

So I've seen trends going around that many big-time speculators are disclosing what they have bought over the weeks etc, and their justifications. Well, I think I want to join in the fun! I've done a spreadsheet on what I have bought and sold, along with the prices.

What I have bought so far and the reasons for buying.
Most of them are for investment and safe to say, most are safe bets to go buy into. I have some high risk speculation cards which I will go into later for my reasoning.

Foil Thought Scour is a step too late. I had the opportunity to ship them out at 1200 points each on PucaTrade, but I hesitated. In the end I lost that window to trade it out and eventually, had to settle it for selling them at $8 each.  The profit margin was still okay though, but it would have been better even if it is out via points. The considerable amount of difference in the profit still does matter in the end when I think about the possible trade routes. Even then, it's still good to see profit.

Smother was a simple plan; pick it up at $1.50 when the prices reflected are $6 and just sell it at that price. No questions asked.

Abrupt Decays are safe spec pieces that I have been trading them for awhile since last year. The profit margin is quite reasonable and on my side, I still have 11 more pieces. Those will be waiting for the prices to hit $18 - $20 before letting go of them.

I'm not willing to let go of Snapcaster Mage despite the obvious increment in prices. I firmly believe in my words that Snapcaster Mage will hit $50 this year. Heck, I'm willing to do a bet that it will hit $55 by the end of the year! I'll be looking to sell them at that price range by then. I don't foresee myself using them anytime soon. Even then, a reprint for Snapcaster Mage is an easy priority target in future Modern Masters reprints.

Okay, let's move on to the Higher risk speculation pieces

Rakshasa Deathdealer
  • 4-off in almost all Standard Abzan deck? a 2/2 for 2 mana which is a relevant draw in early and late game. It's $1 now but I expect to see it reaching $3 - $4 tops when Theros rotates out. Even if it isn't in Abzan decks, G/B/x variants can run this still. 
Trail of Mystery (High Risk)
  • I don't know... I thought manifest and morph would be a thing with this...
Ghostfire Blade (High Risk)
  • A strong card if there some works of colourless or morph creatures... Affinity may not want to play it over cranial plating, but there is still hope in seeing it in some decks post- KTK... 
Spirit of the Labyrinth
  • Modern and Legacy playable. I know the foil is insane now, so the non-foil would pick up the trend.. Plus, this card is in Born of the Gods... it's a small set and also, it's barely opened as compared to the other expansions of that block... so it would probably be a long-term keep. 
See the Unwritten
  • Firstly, it's a mythic that will be seen in EDH play. It screams for decks with unique synergy with this card and by itself, it's a game winner if done right. Second, it is very possible to see it in play in Standard constructed formats due to its power level. It may not be seen now, but I'm very sure that this will be a strong pick-up now. Too bad I only have 6 pieces... Should have bought more of them...
Anax and Cymede (Foil)
  • Tiny Leaders is really in the rage right now and this is is a very strong choice as a tier 1 commander. Wait for it... if it really takes off, this would go up accordingly to demand and play.

Remember I had written an article regarding a project in which I'm making another modern deck?? You can read all about it in the link below:

I have more or less completed the deck, but after a few games with it, I realized it's not my play-style. I sold the deck to a friend, while keeping the staples for my other decks. But, the underlying motive of the deck was still about brewing a deck for cheap using trade platforms. So here is the final spending:

Cards purchased Prices per piece
2x Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
$6.65
1x Baneslayer Angel
$12.35
4x Nevermore
$1.00
1x White Sun's Zenith
$0.50
1x Leyline of Sanctity
$25.00
3x Wrath of God
$11.00
Combined PucaTrade / Deckbox Mailing cost:
~$50.00
Total:
$109.50

As I did mention, the total cost for the deck would hit around USD$350 if I were to buy from the shops (cos shops here mainly does a price guide from starcitygames with USD/SGD conversion factor.) I managed to reduce the price to $109.50 spent. I think it's a good amount of savings and considering that the cards that I kept were like 4x Leylines, Baneslayer Angel and the Wrath of Gods, I think its worth the money spent in the end. 
It was a small project I wanted to run for awhile and now that I have accomplished that goal, it's time to move on to other things. 

Saturday, March 07, 2015

The little things that just piss me off.... [Reader Discretion Advised!]

I love trading. I really do. But, sometimes it just pisses me off dealing with people who are either too full of themselves or simply just ignorant. Now, I'm not here to accuse people or discriminate anyone. I'm bringing up this topic as a learning point on how people can be when it comes to trading and when especially, the deal involves cash, it's best to be aware of yourself and the people you are dealing with. 

Let's start off with the worst of the bunch; these people make it into the blacklist I have on a local forum for their selfish action and it really spoilt my day then when I have to deal with their selfishness. However, for the sake of non-disclosure of personal information, I'm only putting the scenarios and not their personal information. 

Guy A, [17/5/13] 
Blacklisted reason: 
Decided to pull out of trade after rearranging the dates to his convenience and after that irresponsibly backed out with the reason as quoted, "plans have changed. I can't make it today"; And "I think I don't want to buy already." when I called him on 17/5/13, 7.01pm, even after inquiring him for a more convenient date and time. If he genuinely have a change of plans, he should have just informed me in advance. 

(24th May 2013: I decided to entertain him once more but this guy pushed his luck. He keep changing his trade orders and timing when I told him only at 4.30 today. After awhile I simply got fed up and cancelled the deal upon request and agreement of my friend (some were my friend's cards). He went on to hurl insults and vulgarities when I told him to mind his trading ethics.) 

If in case you wonder why I did this, it's more than just to get even with him. My reasoning is simple, treat others the way you want to be treated. Throughout the entire situation, he showed no remorse despite that minor apology message which didn't sound convincing. After repeated reminder to stick to the posted message on the forum and our agreed deals, he continued to disturb me throughout the day. In the end, it was a last straw that I decided to teach him a lesson. Later I found out that he was a secondary school kid and has irritated quite a number of traders and even the more reputable ones are also afraid to deal with him for his nuisance attitude.

(3rd August 2013: Suddenly received a message in caps at around 9pm complaining that he was blacklisted and about how I think I am right, calling me names like "little prick". He then went on to quote a Shakespearean quote from Romeo and Juliet, "Thou detestable maw , thou womb of death", as an insult. literally implying that I killed him with my mouth. Ironic that he can still send me a text message and all. As seem learnt as he is, I'd rather him not waste his time on me and put his talent on better use in the society. Last checked post my 2nd update regarding him, his reputation as a trader isn't at all great.)

Guy B, [23/8/14] 
Blacklisted reason: 
I messaged him the day before asking him if trade is confirmed and called him 5x prior to the scheduled meeting time, but no reply; "M1 customer not responding". So no replies means what? You're backing out? Busy? MIA? I don't want assume anything first but please respond to my message or calls. At least let me know on your end and not leave the other party cliffhanging. If u are busy, I can rearrange another deal; If you want to back out from the deal, it's fine. But, what is the meaning of this?

So as you can see, the above 2 cases is when people decided to strike a deal with me, then decided to disappear or even better, for the first case, decided to revoke his deal and later postpone it once I threatened to make the situation public. Please, you all are better than this. Please do not follow their actions. In plain words, you're just being a dick.

-------------

Okay, in the next of the list, I have many scenarios that pissed me off when dealing with some of the local players and even some of the overseas traders that I have met. There are minor quirks that can take off the otherwise mostly positive trading experiences, but there is 2 kinds which really irritates me. As again, it's not to discriminate anyone, so no personal information will be revealed.
  • Lowballing / haggling
I have met people who loves to squeeze out any amount of discount possible. Really, I have actually met people who actually haggles when buying bulk rare pieces from me! Generally I'll give the appropriate discounts to make the deal a good one, but sometimes these people will go as far as to asking for 50% or worse, even up to 80% off from the quoted price (mind you, I'm still talking about bulk rares which I sell $0.50 to $1 a piece...) 
I know and I have said in a much earlier article here about how trades should be fair; normally I don't mind being at the slight losing end to earn a regular trading partner, which I would eventually get to have better negotiation grounds for fairer trades, but some are really just out to squeeze every penny out from your well intentions... So, being nice sometimes isn't right huh. 

Let's see another scenario I have encountered; I have a regular who always want to take in my bulk rares at a very low rate compared to what prices I have posted. But, on the good side is that he will normally buy about 100 - 200 pieces. Initially I folded to have him as a trading partner (as mentioned above) then eventually, I requested to use TCG Mid or any other pricing websites to get a fairer trade deal. Then this happened. 

343 rares (bulk to $1.50) for the following:
  • 1x Polluted Delta
  • 1x Bloodstained Mire
This was the initial trade proposal. Just to give you a rough idea, the valuation he made was about $0.10 a piece, as opposed to the range of prices I have posted on forum. I have to admit I was annoyed and even irritated after calculating the valuation of the trades on both side. I objected to the proposal and requested for re-negotiation. The following were the other proposed trades:
  • 1x Bloodstained Mire
  • 2x Overgrown Tomb
  • 1x Bloodstained Mire
  • 3x Overgrown Tomb
  • 1x Bloodstained Mire
  • 4x Overgrown Tomb
Eventually, the trade was settled with the following cards. 
  • 1x Bloodstained Mire
  • 1x Polluted Delta
  • 4x Overgrown Tomb
  • 1x Temple of the False God
  • 1x Siege Rhino
At this point, I'm still at the losing end of $40 of value. However, I still accepted the trade for 2 reasons. 
  1. No matter how I look, the cards I am trading out are still considered bulk or near bulk range. It will be difficult to get them at full value if I were to individually sell out. Also, given the time factor for trading and sell those cards out, my work hour will depreciate if I hold out longer. As a trader, I have to also consider those options and not just look at the face value of the cards.
  2. No matter what it is, I value trading partnerships more than the face value of cards. It's better to have another ally than someone who works against you. Dealing in such trades like bulk rare is actually really simple; many people can actually just start off tomorrow and honestly, their collection are definitely bigger and have more capital than me to win me. So, business point, I rather be diplomatic in most cases unless the person is being a dick to me like the ones I blacklisted.
I'm sorry if this comes out as a rant post. The point I'm trying to drive here is that we, as a community, love Magic: the Gathering. That's already one thing we have in common as a whole that brought us together to meet, play and trade. So why try to break this community? It's really upsetting to see people behaving like this, ripping off or lowballing other people just for personal gains or even worse, for money. 

Speaking of ripping... Do read the excerpts below. Oh yeah, for the part below, I'm not censoring any names because I feel that these people deserve to be known for their actions and should be avoided.

Boxed is a black-listed post I made which summarised the entire story. The post below it is the full consolidation that MTG players in Singapore have made about his deeds and details. The case isn't closed though
The original Poster of this thread is a friend of mine; He knows the guy for a few years and looking through the post, he is known to have such shady dealings. That's all I am going to talk about...
Question is why? Why these people want to be dicks and start scamming, ripping and even go as far as to sell fakes to others? 

Seriously people, don't be dicks to other people. There is karma even if you don't believe in it.