Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The bold move...

In the light of the recent banning of certain cards, it enlightened me to see things in a different manner and I wish to share with you guys. First off, I'm quite aware that I didn't explain myself clearly in the last few paragraphs and I wish to elaborate it here. 

In the light of Banning...
All aboard... The leaving cruise.
It's no surprise that Treasure Cruise got the banhammer. As discussed in my updates earlier, it's no surprise for the reason that it is a really strong card.
- Forget the 8-mana cost. It's essentially played as a 1 mana draw 3 cards since it has "Delve".
- It's played as a mid-game booster for aggro decks to fill the hand. Hence, enabling to draw 3 cards for that kind of cost, it's almost an equal power level of one of the banned cards; Ancestral Recall.

Dig Through Time is skeptical. I personally thought that... Honestly I was really surprised... and disappointed. Despite very little play experience with Pod decks, Birthing Pod easily goes into one of my favourite green cards. It's powerful, fair and allows a diverse amount of utility and play strategies.

So to me, it can be said the banning of pod is really uncalled for. It's almost like a meta-staple. A face or poster boy of Modern Format. You have to understand that although Pod decks received a huge buff from the recent Khans of Tarkir expansion (Seige Rhino), along with the other smaller boost like Reclamation Sage and Eidolon of the Rhetoric over the past year. It adapted well to the format
because of the deck's flexibility. Not because Pod itself is overpowered. As I described earlier, the deck itself test the pilot's ability. It doesn't just win games on its own. The strategy and ability of the pilot will make a huge difference.

Bye bye....
So now with Pod decks gone from the meta, along with the weakening of U/R Delver decks and to an extend any other decks that uses Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time, they basically face the following situations;
  1. Delver and pod players have no home now.
  2. Have to spend thousands to re-modify their decks or basically change their decks.
  3. What is the next best deck to play?
Personally, I would say UR delver decks have a few options if they choose not to continue playing Delver. It's still fringe playable, but don't expect playing as well as it did in the Cruise Era...
  • Jeskai Midrange/Control
  • Splintered Twin
  • Izzet Control (is this even a thing?)
  • RDW (yea... just go for that if you care about budget that much...)
Birthing Pod players will face a slightly harder option; Pod deck goes off as a combo deck with an alternative win-con as an aggressive Abzan beat-down. Kiki-Pods on the other hand rely more on the combo. So it's hard for them to shift into a new deck with a similar plan at a minimized cost.
  • Jund
  • Junk / Abzan Midrange
  • Scapeshift (kiki-pod players)
  • Zoo (kiki-pod players)
  • Golgari Dredge?
So as we we can see, the next closest decks for the 2 groups of players are rather off in the strategy and deck archetypes itself. So honestly, just be prepared to spend if necessary. Magic is an expensive hobby. That is something we can all agree on.

Okay, so what about the recent unbanned Golgari Grave-Troll? To be honest, I'm not really surprised to see this unbanned. But, what does this mean for us modern players? What decks will rise because of this card? Prominently, it would be Golgari Dredge/Delve decks that would see benefit.

However, the big question remains as to potentially how strong these decks are and/or how relevant are they to the refreshed format, it really depends on on the support and response they get post-banning announcement. On the top of my head, Dredgevine may see a return thanks to him. Maybe some sort of Delve decks with the new Soulflayer? What about reanimator decks? There are new possibilities and strategies, but it will depend on the popularity and if anyone willing to play them.

Also, it depends on the hate meta. Thanks to "Delve" by Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, graveyard hate is prominent in my meta. (checking around mtgtop8, grave-hate isn't that much of a problem..) But, hey, depending on where you play, the local meta will see fit differently. But then again, I'm not surprised that the impact of Golgari Grave-Troll to be insignificant. As we recall last year, when Bitterblossom was unbanned, the hype of it caused it to spike up to around $70. But, what happens next? No tournament results and in the end, it was just that; a hype.

Where this goes financially?

Now, this guy is more important than ever...
Key modern staples are not just about the staples for a specific deck. I personally think it's time to look into staples that are capable to be included into multiples. I think that some of you will be laughing out loud at me for saying this, but yes, it took me this long to get a clear insight to actually think this way.

But, hear me out. With the knowledge of reprints in Modern Masters 2015, It's really best not to go delve into the staples too much. With the recent banning, it really shows that Wizards intend to keep Modern controlled, but volatile at the same time. If we are looking at holding staples, I'd say I really will consider the staples that can be ported easily within decks, like landbase and sideboards.

The core of decks will be hard, especially that the over-performing ones like pods can easily be targeted for the banhammer, the underperforming ones on the other hand, does not have retention value. So, it is suffice to say that if I really plan to hold out staples on this format, I have to look into staples which are flexible enough to go into at least 2 or more decks in the format before considering it to be a worthy investment.

So in the meantime, I stand by my decision to stay clear of buying into too much singular-deck staples until Modern Masters 2015. At least in the meantime I have the time to access the format; letting it grow and adapt from there while new decks emerge from the new meta before deciding what truly sticks around.

Could have been worse...
I have been reading Reddit, and Tappedout and MTGsalvations Forums quite actively in-lieu for the banning. I assured myself that the situation could have gone much worse..
The power level of Bloodbraid Elf cannot be underestimated. Un-banning this will cause more of a trouble than help; sure Zoo and Jund will get a tremendous boost they deserve, but the issue of bloodbraid elf running around is that there are no strong decks to keep them in check otherwise. She is not disruptive the moment you cast her, but it is her cascade ability that gives the most issue as the curving end of a low-cost deck, anything she hits with her ability is another board advantage and usually, it's enough to turn the tide around. With Dark Confidant around looming in the same deck, this gives decks running the Jund core a lot of unfair card advantages. 

I was adamant that Bloodbraid Elf will not see an unban due to the sheer unfairness of card and board advantage it gives Zoo and Jund players. So, prior to the ban list update, I noticed my local stores here have sold out their copies at around $2.5 each on average. I decided to pass the opportunity in buying the last 2 pieces. I was right in doing so. She remained banned. However, as I did not anticipate Golgari Grave-Troll to be unbanned, the overnight spike from $1 to $11 all around the world is, well, a surprise that the prices spike so fast. However, note to self, it would not stay there for long. $11 is the initial hype on what he does. If I were to follow the hype as seen in Bitterblossom, my guess he will settle down after the hype to about $4 or $5 a piece.

As I mentioned about the no strong decks in check, think about it. Combo and control decks are scarcely around to check the other archetypes. A very good example is the recent U/R Delver and Birthing Pod scenario. Scapeshift was also prominent in the scene when UR delver took the house. The two decks, Pod and Scapeshift adapted very quickly and managed to see some Top 8 results. Eventually, Pod still manage to take the top placing in the recent GP.

My point here is that there are decks which adapted with the eventual outburst of Treasure Cruise power level, but yes, banning it is the right thing as if the meta is eventually to wrap around playing it or to counter it, it's not a healthy format. However, the point made is a focus that Pod decks were versatile. That's why they won. Okay I'll stop here about Pod decks or it'll seem this whole article is just talking about defending why Pod shouldn't be banned.

Final Thought
In retrospect, I understand why they chose to ban it. Wizards wanted Modern to be continuously volatile and engaging as such that the meta for the format is very diverse. Hence, removing a top-contender along side with the 2 format-wrapping cards will allow the diversification of the format. However, on that standpoint, I really don't see control decks out and running around in the format. Yes, it's a fast format. But, don't you agree that having some prominent control decks running around will help balance out the power-struggle between combo and aggro archetypes? Right now, the meta is dominated in aggro, followed by combo. With the recent post-banning, it would likely seem that the 2 archetypes will still stay in the power-struggle, but control just seem to lost Dig Through Time. I mentioned previously that this was the defining card that could help Control decks see top tier play.

I know Jeskai control is out and running as the dominant control deck. But, an archetype of decks doesn't just represented by a singleton deck right? What about Cruel Control? Tezzeret Artifact? Esper Gifts? I don't play control, but I would love to see more of these decks up to keep the format diverse. Maybe I am wrong, you know, that post-banning these decks will see better play opportunities for some reason. But, as to what I see so far, the meta has basically just became what was prior Khans of Tarkir release, minus Birthing Pod.

It is definitely a bold move and I understand their decision. But, I cannot help but actually wonder what happens to those players who were playing those decks prior the banning and having to spend thousands again just to keep up to the format. Modern was supposed to be an Eternal format; players are able to buy into the game at a high cost, but able to make full use of their investments to reap the benefits of having a deck which could stick to them for life. I cannot imagine how it feel to just suddenly not play the deck thanks to the banlist. Actually, I stopped playing my favourite bant deck due to cost reasons. I sold it last year before the price spike and eventually made the Ally reanimator deck.

I would reaffirm my statement that this incident is a very good learning point for me that Modern is not a place to invest for long term. Even so, I still choose to, but I will have to stick to a more versatile staple instead of a deck-restricted staple. My guess is that my buy-ins for this year would be relatively lesser as compared to last year. But, who knows what Modern Masters 2015 will bring and I look forward to that. Thankfully with the recent lesson learnt, I've made the right choice to invest in foiling out my EDH decks instead.

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