Monday, September 22, 2014

Hit or Miss? Post-RTR Financial Review of JOU / M15 Speculation.

With post-RTR rotation arrived, I want to see how my analysis fared so far and my personal review in the analysis and any other updates for the card. For reference, you can see my review for the individual cards in the following review posts below:
For reference, I am using TCG Mid and MTGPrice.com for price references.

Okay, let's start!

(Journey into Nyx)


I personally think that among the 3 expansions in Theros Block, it kind of goes quite underwhelming as I look at the set again. In comparison to Return to Ravnica, it's really underwhelming for people who are looking beyond standard constructed. RTR block gives us incredibly powerful cards like Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, Sphinx's Revelation, etc. And, reprints like Shocklands.

Note that bulk rares consists of prices < $0.50, and bulk Mythic are priced < $1. For the list, I'll go by this format below.
  • Card (Speculated price / Current price )

Hits! (Prices that are in the range of the speculated price, with a standard deviation of ~ 0.05%)
  • Godsend ($4-5 / $5) [Foil $20]
  • Prophetic Flamespeaker ($5 / ~$5)
  • Sage of Hours (< $3 / $1.7)
  • Worst Fears (bulk / $1)
  • Bearer of the Heavens (bulk - $1 / bulk)
  • Deicide ($1-$3 / ~$1.6)
  • Dictate of Erebos ($1 / ~$1)
  • Eidolon of Blossoms ($2 / ~$2)
  • Daring Thief (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Dawnbringer Charioteers (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Dictate of Twin Gods (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Doomwake Giant (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Extinguish All Hope (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Harness by Force (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Heroes’ Bane (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Hydra Broodmaster (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Hypnotic Siren (Bulk - $1 / Bulk)
  • King Macar, the Gold Cursed (Bulk - $1 / Bulk)
  • Launch the Fleet (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Pheres-Band Warchief (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Polymorphous Rush (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Revel of the Fallen God (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Scourge of Fleets (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Skybind (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Spawn of Thraxes (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Twinflame (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Temple of Epiphany ($6-$8 / $7)
Near hits. (Prices that are almost in the  range of the speculated price, with a range difference of $1-2)
  • Athreos, God of Passage ($10-$15 / ~$8)
  • Pharika, God of Affliction ($5-$8 / $4)
  • Battlefield Thaumaturge ($1 / bulk)
  • Dictate of Heliod ($1 / bulk)
  • Hall of Triumph ($1 / $0.78)
  • Setessan Tactics ($1.00 / ~$1.5)
  • Temple of Malady ($6-$8 / $10)
Miss. (Prices that are completely out of range)
  • Iroas, God of Victory ($10-15 / ~$5)
  • Keranos, God of Storms ($10-15 / ~$18)
  • Kruphix, God of Horizons ($8 / ~$3)
  • Aegis of the Gods ($3 / $1)
  • Dictate of Karametra ($1.5 / bulk)
  • Dictate of Kruphix ($2 / bulk)
  • Eidolon of Great Revels ($2-$4 / ~$8.5)
  • Mana Confluence ($5-$8 / ~$16)
  • Master of Feast ($6-$8 if break meta, bulk otherwise / ~$3)
  • Silence the Believers (Bulk / $1.5)
Honestly, some of these cards are quite surprising. For instance, Master of Feast is not as expensive as I thought. I knew that card would be something that people will go after for standard, but it turns out it's about half of the price I expected it to be. 

Perhaps also because of the lack of proper mana fixers in standard, mana confluence is still a card in high demand. However, I still stick to my stand that this is merely a clone of City of Brass.

The most surprising in the review is my initial analysis of the Gods. My initial thought was that the Gods would take up in most of the decks, but it appears otherwise. Keranos, God of Storms is insanely powerful as I did mention in a gameplay review I did last month. However, I did not anticipate the spike to be this fast. For the rest of the God cards, let's just say those that I have missed completely really took a shock for me in my analysis. How can I even think that they are fringe viable in constructed formats? They are mainly demanded by EDH actually.


(Core Set 2015)


To be honest, This was most anticipated core set  after the changes. It gave us plenty of surprises and awesome reprints!

Hits! (Prices that are in the range of the speculated price, with a standard deviation of ~ 0.05%)
  • Ajani Steadfast ($10-$15 / ~$15)
  • Jace, the Living Guildpact (5-$10 / ~$9)
  • Soul of Ravnica ($1-$2 / ~$1.2)
  • Soul of Innistrad ($1-$2 / ~$2)
  • Soul of Shandalar ($1-$2 / ~2.3)
  • The Chain Veil (~$2-$4 / ~$2)
  • Avacyn, Guardian Angel (bulk to $1 / $0.6)
  • Hushwing Gryff ($1-$3 / ~$1.7)
  • Mass Calcify (bulk / bulk)
  • Preeminent Captain ($1-3 / $1.23)
  • Spectra Ward (Bulk - $1 / bulk)
  • Spirit Bonds (Bulk - $3 / ~$1)
  • Jalira, Master Polymorphist (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Master of Predicaments (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Mercurial Pretender (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Stormtide Leviathan (Bulk / Bulk)
  • In Garruk's Wake (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Indulgent Tormentor ($1 / ~$0.7)
  • Necromancer's Stockpile (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Ob Nixilis, Unshackled ($1-$3 / ~$1.7)
  • Stain the Mind (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Aggressive Mining (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Burning Anger (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Crucible of Fire (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Goblin Kaboomist (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Hoarding Dragon (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Siege Dragon (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Life's legacy (Bulk / Bulk) 
  • Phytotitan (Bulk / Bulk) 
  • Avarice Amulet (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Grindclock (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Haunted Platemail (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Obelisk of Urd (Bulk / Bulk)
  • Phyrexian Revoker ($1-2 / ~$1.5)
  • Shield of Avatar (Bulk)
  • Battlefield Forge ($4-$5 / ~$4)
  • Shivan Reef ($4-$5 / ~$4.5)
  • Yavimaya Coast ($4-$5 / ~$4)
Near hits. (Prices that are almost in the  range of the speculated price, with a range difference of $1-2)
  • Liliana Vess ($8 / $10)
  • Chandra, Pyromaster ($5-$10 / $7)
  • Soul of Zendikar ($2-$3 / ~$1)
  • Resolute Archangel ($1-3 / bulk)
  • Hornet Nest (Bulk / $1.5) 
  • Hornet Queen (Bulk to $1 / ~$1.3)
  • Genesis Hydra ($1- $4 / $3)
  • Yisan, the Wanderer Bard (Bulk / $1.3)
  • Kalonian Twingrove (Bulk to $1 / Bulk)
  • Scuttling Doom Engine (~$3 / ~$4.7)
  • Sliver Hive (~$5 / ~$3.5)
  • Llanowar Wastes ($4-$5 / $6)
Miss. (Prices that are completely out of range) 
  • Nissa, Worldwaker ($30 / $45)
  • Garruk, Apex Predator ($8 / $18)
  • Soul of Theros ($4-$5 / ~$2)
  • Soul of New Phyrexia (~$10 - $12 / $5)
  • Sliver Hivelord ($2-$3 / $10)
  • Perilous Vault ($6 / ~$3)
  • Return to the Ranks ($4 / bulk)
  • Aetherspouts ($4-$5 / bulk)
  • Chasm Stalker (Bulk / ~$3.7) [foil $11.8]
  • Chief Engineer (Bulk / $1.6)
  • Polymorphist's Jest (Bulk - $1 / ~$2.9)
  • Cruel Sadist ($2-$3 / Bulk)
  • Waste Not ($2 / ~$3.8)
  • Goblin Rabblemaster ($3-$6 / ~$13)
  • Chord of Calling ($25 / $8)
  • Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth ($10-$15 / $5)
  • Caves of Koilos ($4-$5 / ~$2.5)
Why you fly so high?!~~
It is perhaps because of my lack of exposure in standard format that I am unable to identify the standard chase rares like Nissa, Worldwaker. Looking at both sets, It's clear as to why I am working with bulk rares more rather than the chase rares. I am able to spot the bulk rares better than trying to identify chase rares. I admit that the research for some of the cards is not as deep as I hoped. 

Most of the cards that I anticipated to rise and ended up went up higher than expected, I had my reservations. I knew the cards would rise, but I didn't reflect it in my own review as for some, I did not anticipate the rise to be so fast. Other cases, the cards, to me, are unplayable for modern format, but I failed to recognise the impact of standard for these cards. As mentioned, my lack of exposure in standard constructed format prevents me from knowing the chase rares for standard.

In any case, this is a good gauge to see how are my analytical skills and whether I have improved as a whole. Basing on the results, it does appear that I still have much to work on. My time to do research for each article is quite limited and I have to learn to gather and process information faster. I think that's a good skill applicable to my own studies as well.

One thing for sure is that I will continue on expanding my collection of bulk rares and trade/bulk accordingly. As I can identify the bulks better, those that are not in the bulk list, I can assume the rest are better off to be non-bulk rares and handle them accordingly. I think it is a good start off point. A good point to start off fresh and new again to look at my Inventory and trading.

There are actually some cards that wasn't reflected in my later judgment of those cards as I haven't written another article for financial and speculation aspects. I haven't had the chance to write another financial analysis article simply because my trades are quite low in number due to my priorities in my studies. I will look into writing financial articles but with my limited knowledge in financial concepts, I can only take these articles in another perspective.

Another point as to why I don't write financial analysis articles is because I don't want my blog to be yet another blog that does financial articles, predicting trends. It's still a blog afterall and I want to keep it unique to my style of writing and perspectives.

That's all I have so far. I'm still in the process of clearing up time from my studies to do the "Featured Shop" Article. Hopefully I can get it out early next month! As always, there are more content in the draft page and I am uploading them soon! Mean time, stay tuned! Subscribe or follow me to receive the latest updates!

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