Money is never enough. That's why in any moment, where there is an opportunity to make a quick buck, most of us jump into it. I, too, took the plunge 2 years back when I decided to start to learn trading and speculation. I have learnt a lot in the 2 years, as well as get to know a lot of friends by trading and playing. In the 2 years, I have experienced both good and bad trades and lessons learnt behind them are often valuable but at times I can be stubborn not to heed my own advice.
In view of this reflection, I have put together the Top 3 lessons I have learnt in the past 2 years; some which I have learnt and adapted, some which I still have yet to fully understand and learn to listen.
1) Trust yourself.
More often than not, I don't. I made a sound judgement and later only to be swayed and crumbled in my lack of trust in myself. This has occurred many times and sometimes when I look back, I can feel like kicking myself.
An example to quote is at the point where Theros is spoilt, I have speculated Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx will be a $10 card within 2 weeks of release. A friend rejected my speculation and claimed it's a terrible card which will only see play in EDH. I eventually gotten hold a copy of it during pre-release, and at that point, Nykthos is only a $5 card. After the event, I contemplated holding on to the card and ended up selling at $6 (the same point when Devotion decks in standard went wild) to another player, when the actual value is $10. Because of my distrust in my own judgment, that trade had undercut me $4. The point here is not about how much I was undercut in value, but it's about the fact I don't trust myself, I made a poor decision. If I made a bad speculation which undercuts my profit, it's a different learning point altogether.
Another point in relation, I have to trust that time is the best investment. More often that not, I offload cards at a sound price at a point of time, only to see the cards go up in price the next day or week. Yes, while such things at times are unpredictable, I should see the trend. The fact this was raised is because in most cases, I went against my instincts to make the quick buck and later fall short by undercutting myself, because again, I don't trust myself.
In addition, the fact that I did make good decisions and speculations, targeting cards like Desecration Demon, Consecrated Sphinx, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Voice of Resurgence, Geist of Saint Traft, Snapcaster Mage, etc... it means it's no luck that I'm predicting the price increase. I am able to do it and should trust myself more.
2) Nice Guy finish last
I have to admit... I'm too nice. More often than not, I discount my prices because of distrust in my judgment, also because I'm just being nice to the trader; a fact that anyone will take advantage world. Many describe "it's a dog eat dog world out there". The world can be cruel. Many times we are exploiting the benefits from others to our own benefits, squeezing any last drop of such from people who are weak to give into such pressure. I crumbled at times. I'm not firm enough to protect my own interest and my valuation of cards.
In a slight twist of the same point, I am open to negotiation of prices, but sometimes I crumbled at the negotiation where people often try to lower the buy price and I give in. For this isn't too bad sometimes (-$1 from a $11 deal, etc) as at times, it can be advantageous; the trade proceeds smoother and the cash transaction is much easier to handle. Now I made a stand that the prices I trade would not deviate more than 5% in general.I would only give a more generous discounts to my regular traders and friends who supported me in my journey as a player and trader in the past 2 years.
Sometimes, nice guys have their benefits. Personally, I'm able to uphold a good reputation which serves me well, which when I meet fellow players, they are more willing to trade/sell/buy cards to and from me, enabling an easier and smoother trades to move my stocks.
3) "It's a Trap!"
I hate doing maths but it doesn't take a genius to realise that booster packs are the number 1 trap in any TCG. For those out there not convinced when I say that you are better off buying singles; you save more money in the long run and guaranteed to acquire the card. In fact, many published articles too state the exact same things. More often that not, you spend more than what you are looking for. Buying off singles may cost you hundreds at a go, but you basically have a trade in what you want to acquire. Going by the booster route, cracking a $40 card from a $4 booster pack can be rewarding, but googling the odds of such occurrence happening, it is not viable in the long run.
Cracking booster boxes and cases are actually better off buying packs. A lesson learnt from my recent booster spree, (yes, guilty as charged) it's best not to crack booster packs. But, if I really have to or the urge is too overwhelming, spree 36 packs at a go (equivalent to a booster box) and ask for a box price. You're getting a better value off the booster packs and makes covering up losses easier. Alternatively, I can get a box straight and play drafts with friends to improve my drafting skills. But bottom line: Don't buy boosters.
Lessons learnt over the 2 years are simple, but often forgotten or ignored. I have to step up in my game to continue to trade effectively and turn profits. In fact, no. I should not be looking to profit; I should look to maximize the value of each dollar spent. How I should position my trades; Instead of looking to just make a profit, I have to look at whether the card I am trading for has a better investment value. The value can be evaluated from the prospect in price increament due to rarity and/or decrease in supply, playability of the card and timing. As of now, the best investment is to invest in Modern cards. The demand is increasing with the growing player base, and certain cards are getting more and more difficult to obtain.
Personal speculation:
- Modern prices in general will not see a stop in the rising trend due to the increase in player base, the increase in demand and as well as the approaching modern season in june/july.
- I'm eyeing at Domri Rade to be the next $40 planeswalker; He has potential in the recent resurge of zoo decks and possibly in Naya Blitz or Gruul decks. Noted that modern SB techs are well-equipped for Zoo hate as they expected the resurge since the unbanning of Wild Nacatal.
- I'm looking at Restoration Angel, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Voice of Resurgence, Geist of Saint Traft, Snapcaster Mage as potential long term investments
- Longer term investments would include: Skylasher, Plasm Capture, Burning-Tree Emissary, Charms and Split cards from RTR Block. Young Pyromancer is a good uncommon to hold
- $8-$10 for Shocklands are a safe bet. Just don't expect them to double anytime too soon.
- Since fetchlands are hitting the roofs, hope for reprints, then snag a playset! Just expect that the prices will not increase too soon post reprints.
Right now I'm working on the Project: Zero to grow the collection of bulk rare I have. It's also a platform for me to meet traders and interact; observe and speculate cards from their opinions and determine which cards a better for investment and what to avoid. Next I have to decide proper as which format I want to follow; as of now, I'm following more into Modern and EDH, but my collection is not exactly following any format. It would be wise to match the format, but modern is getting expensive to invest proper. Fetchlands are reaching $100+, the staples are breaking new records and random cards are spiking due to speculations on new decks. I ever had thoughts in selling off everything and restart my collection, but in the light that everything is going up in price, it's difficult to do so. Pretty much what I can do now is focus in acquiring more bulk rares from people and sort out which are true bulk and which have value; from there I'll change the true bulk for better rares and sell the rares at specified value.
My point here is that instead of jumping onto the already filled bandwagon that is going crazy in the prices, I'd rather take the time to build my own kart and eventually ride the waves. To me, bulk rares are the safest bet for investment. They always have a resale value at 20%; highest for any kind of card, really. Demand is forever there and when they spike, their increase are at least by the 100-s in percentage. In terms of investment, I'd find that is the best form of investment, but I have to learn to hold onto the cards.
Finally, the end point goal is to complete the foil planeswalker collection with every alternate art printed. It'll be darn cool!
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