So I'm sure that most of you have watched the Fate Reforged Pro Tour last week. Yes, apologies that this took longer than other websites / blogs doing coverage. I'm doing this at my own free time, so please understand. Also, it gives me some time to think through how I really want to cover that makes the article slightly different.
Alright, since many sites have covered the Pro Tour well in-depth and what's more for me to say? Going through the decks and how they perform is going to be a bore, and I can't talk much about the finance sector. The prices have long gone up as according to the decks that have performed! Breakout decks? I think this is the worst topic to talk on... We know the top 8 decks already!
Wait, there is still things we can discuss. Even at this late period, I have 3 main points to discuss that will definitely still be a good input to the already heavily discussed topic.
- Abzan is NOT the definitive deck for Modern Format in early 2015
Guess which is the definitive deck for Modern Format? Abzan? No. You heard me right. In my opinion, Abzan wasn't the definitive deck for Modern format for 2015. It was Izzet Delver. That deck alone punished the format with efficient creatures and powerful draw engine to fuel the game till the end. The deck has perfect balance in the powerful 1-drops and removals / cantrips to fuel the deck. Plus, it was cheap to boot!
Another reason being is that by stats, if we have 30% of the people playing the same deck in the PT, it has higher odds, and is bound to have that deck in the top 16 and eventually, the top 8. Now hear me out, I'm not discrediting the deck or the players who played them. I agree it is a strong deck and I went 2-1 in a local Modern event deck with an Abzan midrange variant. (could have been 3-0 if it hadn't been for a stupid mistake that cost me the game!) So look again, it's a popular deck. Abzan Midrange is positioned perfectly to take advantage of the meta and hence, it is stomping around the format. But, to my point here, this does not make it the definitive deck. It didn't define the format as much as how Izzet Delver did.
Okay, if you are going to retort my point with Izzet Delver being killed off due to the banning of Treasure Cruise, I have a counter for you. (pun intended)
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| Prepare for trouble! Make that doubleeee... infinity! |
If we based on Pro Tour Fate Reforged and the currently legal decks, Twin Exarch will be the definitive Modern deck for early 2015! Don't agree with me? I have 3 reasons:
- Twin Exarch's Combo/Control game-plan is solid. The deck can run control until it combos off or just go straight for the set up and win the game. In essence, it has a good primary and secondary back-up plan.
- While it is not particularly stable, Twin Exarch defines the pace of the game. It sets the game pace before it's being played out. Look back at the games in the top 8/16 on how the players sets the tempo of the game. They basically are the ones controlling the game pace most of the time and the opponents are playing by their pace.
What it means is that Aggro decks must kill them off before turn 4 or their combo, or find ways to completely stop their combos before they can safely secure the win. - Even without the bannings, Twin Exarch held out well in previous PTs and GPs, with at least one piloting the deck finishing Top 16!
So my point, be thankful that UR Delver is relegated. But, then again, Abzan and their Siege Rhinos...
- Control Archetype in Modern dead.
Hyper aggro decks like Infect and RDW are gaining favour in the new meta and honestly, it's a blast watching these extremely fast decks take down their opponents at such speed! It's like a high DPS character in a game, swinging in for a lot of damage over time, but each hit is relatively light.
It is interesting to see that how these decks made their breakout in the recent Pro Tour, taking most in relative surprise. I mean these decks are usually seen, but they are easily disregarded as "fragile" or "easily lose steam in late game", so in most of our games, we normally would ignore these decks in the match-up considerations. In some cases, they can actually be fodder decks for easy wins.
It seems that this time round, the surprise comes from the fact that people didn't expect that many playing such decks and true enough, Burn and Infect decks took 11.8% and 6.9% of the Meta! To give you a perspective, Abzan, the most played and seen deck in the meta, took up 28.3% of the meta. Burn and Infect decks is 2nd and 4th on the list!
Actually, the breakdown can be seen as shown in the link below:
In the same article, we notice that the control variants are somewhat... missing from the top 10 archetypes...
So, is control archetype dead in Modern? It would seem that way if we do the stats break down and compare; roughly 4% of the entire meta is pure Control decks. That's... really, really little considering that it's an entire archetype. If that's the case the entire meta is certainly dominated by Aggro and Combo decks and yes, Wizards more or less got what they want. (my point precisely as stated in an earlier article here, and here!)
I wanted to go in-depth on how the decks are still viable, but the lack of experience in piloting these decks prevented me to give a fair and detailed discussion on how they actually can survive the new meta and what changes are possible as adaptation. Well, that can be discussed another time, preferably in collaboration with a more experienced player in that archetype. But, right for now, I would want to just focus on the fact that the lack of presence of a major archetype.
So, why is this an important point to note? In simple short, disappearance of an entire archetype can mean 2 things:
- Modern may not be feasible for pure-control players
- 2 dominating archetypes means that the core multi-format, multi-deck staples of these decks will be extremely expensive to buy-in
To keep the discussion brief, this means that control archetype lovers will find a hard time finding a
Taking into account that with the lack of a good fixer for consistency issue and their utility is running obsolete to the new meta, the decks will eventually run out of good cards to deal with the meta. For instance, Siege Rhino escapes bolt range, cannot be Doom bladed, and the format have very little efficient removals other than Path to Exile. So if I don't play white in my control deck, what other options I have that is just as efficient? Sac effects works, but unreliable; Counter spells, which are the main trademark of these deck archetypes are not exactly as reliable in various scenarios; Mana Leak is near-useless in late game, Cryptic Command is mana-intensive, but extremely powerful, Spell Snare cannot hit anything other than cmc 2... you get the point.
That means then the default option for spike players, who just want to win games will eventually settle into the remaining 2 archetypes and well, economics takes over. Supply and Demand issues and we see prices go up for the staples. So basically this may eventually lead to a higher price buy-in for newer players or players who want to make a new deck.
Wizards did mention they want this format to be dominated by creatures and clearly, this is achieved as seen in the meta breakdown. But, don't expect the meta to stay this way. In my opinion, the meta is still new, and there are still new expansion sets coming out in the months, so brace yourself...
- Brace yourself... Summer is coming
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| Move along.. This Giant is taking the house down! |
I remember when I first fought the deck, I literally went WTF. I could neither deal a turn 3 Primeval Titan threat, nor the Hive Mind combo simultaneously. I will go as far as to admit that I did mention this deck was rather nonsense in its own way, but strong if the deck fixed its consistency. My friend did fix it eventually. Disclaimer, I first fought this deck 1 year ago. So the mindset then and now is different. After the recent banning and eventually to the Pro Tour, I have a new-found respect to the deck, considering the level of difficulty to pilot it and the versatility on how they deck is played against various match-ups. It really will take some time on the learning curve before you know what you are doing.
No, it's not because of the hype that got me interested in the deck. That deck has been in my target of emerging decks since the first time I played against it. Its combo plan is simple, yet effective and considering the difficulty in stopping the deck effectively, it is just a matter of time before this deck emerged out to be tier 1.
It would take awhile and a few more results before we can actually tell whether this deck is good enough to earn the spot it is currently at now; my best bet is to be prepared for this deck. It doesn't have much hate against it to shut down completely other than Blood Moon and maybe Root Maze. It is capable of churning out turns 2, 3 or 4 kill if left unprepared or when your guard is down. Turn 1 wins with Hive mind combo is also possible, with that requiring the perfect hand. Finally, the deck has a variety of options to go about pulling the combo. It is consistent enough with its tutors and land ramps, effectively thinning out the deck for easier good top-deck draws, making late games more effective in winning through their combos.
Consider yourselves warned. Summer is Coming.
Actually, this gives me a new sense of hope that even though we can complain how that the meta is dominated by 2 of the 3 major archetypes or we hate Siege Rhinos, it goes to show that the case of the "survival of the fittest" law really holds well here. How a deck or archetype in general adapts and grow from the changes really makes a world of difference in how they can survive different meta. Birthing Pod was banned because they are too versatile and consistent in finding the right tool for the job. It's similar to the reason why Green Sun's Zenith was banned. So yea, survival of the fittest works well to the most extend, but getting to overpowered and you'll be Nerf-ed. So hang in there control players and other tier 2 / 2.5 deck fans! your time in the sun will come soon! With the right card and time, it will be your turn eventually!
Alright, that's all I have for now. Leave comments below or email me if you agree / disagree with my discussions and whether I should give a more detailed discussion on the above points mentioned. I would love to hear your opinions on the new meta and really, it's interesting to see how the shift in meta can affect so many decks!
I'm in the midst of preparing to celebrate the Chinese New Year, so the next article will be out after the festive period!
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